In 1970, after a WW2 boom, the PEOPLE of the “free” world only buy that much, while the companies produced double than what people could ever buy.
Instead a 50% unemployment (read world wide anarchy) the chosed the safer and better way : LOAN money to people, at very low interest.
A great boom followed : the 1974-1987 boom.The boom was sustained by a healthy 4-5% natural growth, “delivering” more babies, so more workers, so more consumers.
Up until 1987-1990, the natural growth not only stagnated, but became negative.The US and Western EU countries become weary of the inevitable.With all the laws encouraging birth, they couldn’t do shit.
They decided to open the borders to immigration, but keep it inbetween 4-5%.What they realized after about 5 years (somewhere areound 1995-1996), is that the immigrants, instead to work for native salaries, they accepted the jobs that were offered by the greedy emplyees : 30% to 50% less.
In 5-6 years after the “smart” 1990 immigration opening, there were about 10% natives without work thaat were replaced by a number of immigrants working for 50% less and spending accordingly.
This shit was all over US and Western Europe, hitting a point were not only didn’t orked anymore, but was unhealthy, threatening more unemplyoment.
The solution was, for US mainly, to move companies in China, and for Western Europe to move them in Eastern Europe.This was mainly in between 1990-2000.
This solution was great for Americans and western Europeans : their companies paid 70%-90% less salaries, making more money, giving those money to the banks for 1-3% profit, the banks gave those money to the governments in order for those governments to PAY social, a social big enough to keep people of the streets.
It is easily understandable that the money made in poor eastern European countries and China, were enough to keep social payment longer and higher.
However, this only worked until eastern European countries, faced with rebellion, HAD TO increase the salaries.The foreign companies that moved to India, Phillipines, Bangladesh and other poor, while secure countries with generally seni-dictatorial governments. This took place in between 2000-2007.
The loan industry, started in early 1970’s, kept growing until reached a peak in 2005-2007.The borrowed money were so many, that they surpassed not only the GDP of western world, but also become UNABLE to be paid.The only way to keep western world afloat was to loan MORE MONEY (only on paper lol) while implementing heavy burdens to the people.
At this point, most of the people in western world are either unemployed, either on social, either working for less.
While in 1970’s, the solution was immigration paired with cheap loans, this is impossible today.
While in the 1990’s, moving jobs to eastern EU and China was the solution, this is not only impossible today, but the jobs were ALREADY moved to poorer countries.
The world is kinda limited.There aren’t ANYMORE secure or half-secure countries to move jobs to.The loans given in 2000, to governments and people (usually for 20-30 years) are already laond unable to be paid back.
Every solution the banksters and rich used were shorter and shorter. First one lasted about 13-15 years.The second lasted about half of the first, roughly 7 years.The one we are in now started in 2010, and will probably last half of the one before, which is about 3 years.
Every year, the world economy was more and more interconnected. This is why the solutions were geometrically shorter.
This year is the year when the SHTF.
It is impossible to tell who will go down first, triggering world wide economic meltdown.
It can be US, it can be Europe, it can be Japan.
As of last year, the official economic policy of US, EU, Japan, Brazil, Russia, China and a bunck more countries (but less important) is to devalu their currency in order to stimulate the exports.
It is obvious that when 90% or the world markets are doind the same curency devaluation, it is not going to work.
As someone earlier said that if we don’t find a planet with chinese people, we are fucked.
Once the currency devaluation war reach a point were is all-in (I am thinking of April-May this year), the devaluation will become a exploding inflation all over the world.
China economy had slwed down to dangeruous level, enough to stop buying US bonds, not to mention that US manufacturing sector (the one who CREATE plus value) lost 7 million jobs in the last 10 years, and is about to being unable to sustain the dollar.Greece, Spain and Italy are extremely fragile, same as Japan.
Gold purchases, by countries, are at all time high.
My personal bet is that the whole shitstorm will start with Greece and Spain this spring.Greece is close to anarchy.Outside the semi-permanent strike with molotovs, Greece had witnessed a surge in armed attacks on politicians homes and party headquarters, drive-by shooting of journalists etc.
Spain is in same situation as Greece was before going to drain.A country of 40 million people, as Spain is, once entering the greek-like nightmare (which will be in 2-3 months), cannot be saved.
The demise of Greece and Spain will trigger a wave of bancruptcy in all the sectors.Entire countries will go bankrupt, all over the world, and the images of 2010 greek protest will engulf the Europe and the world.
If, by some miracle (a chinese planet, alien invasion, worldwide debt annulment) this isn’t going to happen this spring, once in 2014, Catalunya will become a new state, Spain will lose 40% of their GDP, Scotland will become also independent and UK will exit Eurozone in 2015.
However, my calculations (I am a 40 yrs old economist) are telling me that April-May 2013 are the month of the inevitable.