He will be forced to taper.
Nomura’s bear Bob Janjuah believes the “why” is fear.
From his note last week:
So for me, ‘tapering’ is going to happen. It will be gentle, it will be well telegraphed, and the key will be to avoid a major shock to the real economy. But the Fed is NOT going to taper because the economy is too strong or because we have sustained core (wage) inflation, or because we have full employment – none of these conditions will be seen for some years to come. Rather, I feel that the Fed is going to taper because it is getting very fearful that it is creating a number of significant and dangerous leverage driven speculative bubbles that could threaten the financial stability of the US. In central bank speak, the Fed has likely come to the point where it feels the costs now outweigh the benefits of more policy.
“Between now and 2014, I think you’re going to fall out of bed. . . . Stock investors could take a very big hit—well over 50%.” Wiedemer calls gold “the once and future king” and goes on to predict “gold will go to $6,000 to $7,000 per ounce.”
Arnott: “The Fed has painted itself awfully far into a corner and there is no graceful way out. When you reach a point where talk of ‘tapering’ causes markets to tremble with fear, that’s not a good place to be because it means that you’ve really got the markets addicted to the newly printed money.
And the only way to get the markets attention is to give it more (freshly printed money). It’s just like a crack addiction. This is not healthy and doesn’t play out nicely, and you do have asset bubbles fueled by central bank profligacy all over the world. That also sows seeds of risk because as the Fed backs off from the quantitative easing you wind up creating risks of pretty sharp and adverse market reactions….
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is on the way out the door, but the consequences of the bond bubble that he has helped to create will stay with us for a very, very long time. During Bernanke’s tenure, interest rates on U.S. Treasuries have fallen to record lows. This has enabled the U.S. government to pile up an extraordinary amount of debt. During his tenure we have also seen mortgage rates fall to record lows. All of this has helped to spur economic activity in the short-term, but what happens when interest rates start going back to normal? If the average rate of interest on U.S. government debt rises to just 6 percent, the U.S. government will suddenly be paying out a trillion dollars a year just in interest on the national debt. And remember, there have been times in the past when the average rate of interest on U.S. government debt has been much higher than that. In addition, when the U.S. government starts having to pay more to borrow money so will everyone else. What will that do to home sales and car sales? And of course we all remember what happened to adjustable rate mortgages when interest rates started to rise just prior to the last recession. We have gotten ourselves into a position where the U.S. economy simply cannot afford for interest rates to go up. We have become addicted to the cheap money made available by a grossly distorted financial system, and we have Ben Bernanke to thank for that. The Federal Reserve is at the very heart of the economic problems that we are facing in America, and this time is certainly no exception.
Ron Paul says Fed Chairman Bernanke should “resign,” and explains why the Fed’s plan is in so much trouble.
The following three minutes of absolute perfection uttered by CNBC’s Rick Santelli is dangerous for anyone living in Kyle Bass’ “intellectually dishonest” alter-world of denial and “unicorns and rainbows” as the Chicagoan goes off on the ignorance of everyone in these so-called markets. When every talking head is bullish and the world is going so great that we should all “buy stocks,” Santelli demands we ask Bernanke – “what are you scared of,” that keeps you pumping this much money into the system for this long? Simply put, Santelli’s epic rant is the filter that every investor (or member of the public) should be viewing financial media and the Fed today (or in fact every day).
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