Carlin: Wall Street Owns Washington

BREAKING: NHC tags Invest 96L at High Chance of Hurricane Development – GFS Targets Miami!


Euro and GFS have a GOM spin up.

CMC has a possible East Coast hit.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/


Stay tuned for updates.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2014&MO=08&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=96L.INVEST&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&SIZE=Thumb&STYLE=tables&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc14/ATL/12E.LOWELL/tpw/microvap&TYPE=ssmi

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands has become a little better organized during the past few
hours. Additional slow development of this system is possible during
the next day or two, and a tropical depression could form as the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser
Antilles and into the Caribbean Sea. After that time, land
interaction could limit development potential over the weekend.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands on Thursday night and Friday. Interests
in those islands should closely monitor the progress of this system.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT%20shtml/201749_MIATWOAT.shtml

12Z HWRF similar to GFS.

Cat 1 SE of Miami

http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=nccmdw&s=8

00Z NAVGEM

http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=2u8uzrt&s=8#.U_VG2PldWGw

12Z GFS makes a dead-on Miami landfall.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/2014082012/850vort50.png

Same time of year, same location, and same synopsis as Andrew

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Andrew

Invest 96 L now has a high chance of development by the NHC.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

Invest 96 has now increased to a 60% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days by NHC

http://ow.ly/i/6CnY4/original

Latest track forecast:

http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=a40boi&s=8#.U_VHB_ldWGw

Here is a satellite view of Invest 96L. Currently slowly organizing 

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bvgfqb9IQAAnB-f.jpg

GFS Loop

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014082012/gfs_z850_vort_watl.html

TROPICAL WAVE INVEST 96L MOVING TOWARDS CARIBBEAN, HURRICANE HUNTER MAY DEPLOY TOMORROW

http://www.bajanreporter.com/2014/08/tropical-wave-invest-96l-moving-towards-caribbean-hurricane-hunter-may-deploy-tomorrow/

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands is slowly becoming better organized. Additional development
is possible during the next day or two, and a tropical depression
could form as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
across the Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean Sea. After that
time, land interaction could limit development potential over the
weekend. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and
heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands on Thursday night and Friday.
Interests in those islands should closely monitor the progress of
this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the low tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT%20shtml/202340_MIATWOAT.shtml

18Z models:

http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=i6mr09&s=8#.U_VHMfldWGw

18z HWRF strenghthing cane in Bahamas heading wnw

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2014082018/hwrf_goes4_96L_20.png

Meet Andrew Jr

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2014082018/hwrf_goes4_96L_22.png

DB

313 Total Views 1 Views Today