Investment

Housing market double-dip worries are unfounded? Houses in Rebounding? Good time to buy a house?

Remove all of the shenanigans going on to try an prop up the illusion housing has stabilized and we would fall off a cliff. To recap what has gotten us to “stabilization”.
1. 1.25 trillion in Fed purchases of MBS
2. Government paying people 6k to 8k to buy a home
3. Suspension of FASB 157 allowing banks [...]

When all investments are a craps shoot today, what is wrong with putting a small % of ones money into any metal?

Ask any reputable broker and they will tell you to have 5-10% in metals. Nothing is fool proof………and if one looks at the supply/demand factor, silver does shine. No emotional attachment like gold and look at just the industrial aspect of silver………it’s simple logic.
If the dollar collapses, silver would be more practical for exchange than [...]

It’s Going To Implode: Buy Physical Gold - NOW

Evidence seems to be mounting that we are headed towards some sort of implosion in the paper Gold market, and perhaps the currency/bond markets in general. Let’s take a look:
Jacksonville, FL based EverBank – a bank with approximately $8 billion in assets and 1800 employees according to the company website – recently sent this notice [...]

Who am I to say if this is a bull market, bull run in a bear market, etc. I have no idea.

What I do know is that the paradigm has shifted a lot in the past few generations, so I don’t give much credibility to the “long-term” chartists, graphics, predictions and what not.
When I started trading about 20 some years ago, the Internet was in its infancy. I had to call my broker to enter an [...]

Preview: 2nd half of 2010 and all 2011

With ARM’s and JUMBO ARM’s re-setting 2nd half of 2010 and all 2011, and the $1.7 Trillion dollar commercial market threatening to wreck a lot of pain, there will be MANY non-performing loans held by banks!
Housing prices will be forced down further. Along with that, $187 billion in total State debt, ballooning to$350 billion 2011-2012, [...]

Interesting news concerning the dollar.

Merk who heads the largest currency trading office out there is betting $550M on the value of the dollar decreasing over time. Story sites today’s “reverse beauty” contest where people are flocking to the dollar because it is less ugly than the euro and yen. Also cites problems with China buying our debt and our [...]

Now is good time to buy FXP!

I’ve been to China over 30 times since 1998 while working for 3 multinationals. It’s amusing to see “experts” who has not been to China or spent few days in the big Chinese cities recommending Chinese stocks… Wonder if they ever spent weeks at a time in gritty factory towns or poor interior areas…
Andy Xie [...]

I think only increasing inflation of prices can lead to higher interest rates.

Because when people sell bonds, then they need to invest their money in something else. It doesn’t make sense for them to put their cash under the mattress. And to make something else more attractive than bonds, that something else needs to pay a better return on investment than bonds pay.
Some people say that inflation [...]

Doug Kass today:

Doug Kass is the general partner Seabreeze Partners Long/Short LP and Seabreeze Partners Long/Short Offshore LP. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.
From the Street of Dreams
2/22/2010 7:58 AM EST
Bullish PNC
Bernstein upgrades PNC Financial (PNC) this morning.
Position: Long PNC
Stocks Still Face a Challenge
2/22/2010 7:38 AM EST
The [...]

In Florida, courthouse sales are producing no real bargains;

Bankers are still dancing with “extend and pretend”; independent brokers (both real estate and mortgage) and appraisers are disappearing; but “all cash” speculators are out in force. The speculators believe that any home they can buy that is below replacement cost must be a good deal. Normally, that would be true, but these are not [...]

I’m bearish on the long-term price of housing.

Look at Japan, for example. Prices went down for about 14 years following their bubble bursting. Even in America, we have had long periods where prices were flat. My grandmother bought a rental property in South Florida in the early 80’s and sold it 17 years later for the exact same price she bought it [...]

Around Jan. 19 this rally peaked and turned. The technicals are amazingly clear.

Yesterday the counter trend rally exhausted with a perfect elliottwave termination for a turn.
To make it clear, I’ve been 50% in tbills (short - just to park cash in treasurydirect.gov) and 50% in negative 2x ETF’s for weeks now. I’ve dodged between EEV and SKF 48 hours ago to save a percent or two on [...]

What’s one of the first lessons in finance?

“Invest, don’t Speculate”
http://www.fool.com/how-to-invest/thirteen-steps/step-5-avoid-the-biggest-mistake-investors-make.aspx?source=ii1sitlnk0000001
So if the stock market tanks, it’s buying time. That is, if you have extra time and money to invest
http://www.fool.com/how-to-invest/thirteen-steps/step-7-buy-your-first-stock.aspx?source=ii1sitlnk0000001
in 10-20 years, this stock is just about guaranteed to be worth more :

or, see this link :
http://moneyover55.about.com/od/stockmarketreturns/ig/Stock-Market-Performance
According to these statistics
http://allfinancialmatters.com/2008/10/31/the-50-worst-months-in-sp-history-and-what-followed/
you have an 84% chance of making money on the stock market if you [...]

Any annuity, including S.S. is a high risk investment now.

What was true for decades is no longer true in a nation in decline and facing an eventual currency collapse.
quote:
Austrian economist, Ludwig von Mises:
“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a [...]

Buying a home now may be very high risk.

If you do have a home, make sure you have alternate power sources and water and can manage the waste when city sewer systems are down. Have “no electricity” heat sources that are safe if you live in cold states. Keep enough food on hand that if local stores are looted, you can stay home [...]

Lets get down and dirty on how the real estate market works in China.

First, China has a system called Gong Ji Jin. This system is like a forced savings for housing. If you do not own a house this money keeps accumulating and you have no access to this money until you buy a house. It is divided into three different categories. A is about 44% of the [...]

Happy New Year: 2010, The Year of The Unknowable!

The nice/bad thing about the new year, is that I always review the past years results. I get to see how “I” did, and then how my portfolios did. They are DIFFERENT! In other-words, did my actions add to or subtract from the overall results. First, I maybe the last long, buy and hold investor [...]

It is NOT capitalism…it’s corruption!

Government access and favoritism is NOT capitalism…it’s corruption! Government is suppose to be impartial and objective, doing what’s best for those they represent…the American people, not corporate America.
Politicians of the last 30 years are clearly MORE representative of ’special interest groups’ rather than the American people. Scandals and conflicts of interest are no longer kept [...]

Words of wisdom that will make you money in the long run and better traders.

1.) Forget about theories and being more worried about being right vs making money. For example: Theories that markets can’t go up because of employment, or you think the end of the world is coming. Basically what ever bias you have.
2.) No when you are wrong and adapt quickly
3.) Be a learning machine
4.) Make no [...]

I have found a few truths about the US financial system over the past 15 years, ever since I started trading.

Prior to that, I was like 99.99% of Americans. I worked (I’m now over 70) and raised a family, put a few dollars awat for a rainy day or emergencies, now mostly stolen by “Da Boyz” on Wall Street and corrupt politicians of which there are MANY.
I didn’t really study how Wall Street worked for [...]

GOLD WILL DOUBLE IN 10 YRS? SOUNDS REALLY GOOD, DOESN’T IT?

BIG DEAL! THAT’S ONLY ABOUT A 7% APY..BONDS ARE DOING AS GOOD AS THAT AND EVEN BETTER!
AND MY *BALANCED FUNDS HAVE DONE THE SAME THING OR BETTER, MY EQUITY FUNDS ARE STILL UP + 215% FROM 10 YRS AGO!
AND THE REIT INDEX FUND? IS STILL + 100% OR DOUBLE WHAT IT WAS 10 YRS AGO!
LET [...]

I am investing all my money into a Goldman Sachs managed fund…

Seriously
Who can argue with this
Areas of Expertise Include:
Structuring Alpha-Focused Investment Portfolios
As investors increasingly consider active management to help reach their investment goals, efficient allocation of active risk is a primary concern. We allocate risk where our conviction for alpha-generation is highest and embrace portable alpha strategies to achieve the desired active risk budget.
Achieving Difficult Return [...]

NOTE: After reading #1 please read #6. They are very related and would push the unemployment numbers even higher.

1) “If laid-off workers who have settled for part-time work or have given up looking for new jobs are included, the unemployment rate rose to 17 percent, the highest on records dating from 1994.”
“The average hourly work week fell back to a record low of 33 in September. That figure is important because economists are [...]

The Roth is attractive if the dollar is going to go down.

For example, those investing in commodities, may see 100% gains in their stock portfolio as the dollar goes down. With the one year tax delay, they get a 100% gain that is tax free in the Roth and then in 2011 and 2012 pay tax but, only on what they converted, not that 100% gain [...]

Warning: A New Crash in Sight!!!

A Market Crash in The Making.
Tel Aviv, Sunday, 27th September 2009 1530 IDT.
According to my last analysis yields on US Treasury Debt is below what would be required to compensate the investor for interest rate risk.
That yield on the 30 Years US Treasury Bonds should be above 4.60% instead of 4.09%.
It is now below the [...]

The recession will continue to deepen through 2010.

The recession will continue to deepen through 2010, in spit of the rigged statistics which are restated constantly, and the lack of integrity in the reporting of unemployment. The CES Birth / Death model should not be used as a measure of anything. Also, we should break out the temporary census workers from the unemployment [...]

Panic: 60 Minutes (CBS) Wave 2 AltA’s and Option Arms (Video)

IT IS GETTING WORSE!!!!!

Watch CBS Videos Online
19 Million Vacant Homes
Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) — A record 19 million U.S. homes stood empty at the end of 2008 and homeownership fell to an eight-year low as banks seized homes faster than they could sell them.
The number of vacant homes climbed 6.7 percent in the fourth quarter from [...]

I just bought some SRS on Thursday and I may pick up some FAZ based on this result from the G20 meeting:

“……….the G-20 set an ambitious agenda for determining the 21st-century economic order, agreeing on more stringent regulation of financial markets, tieing banker compensation to long-term performance and phasing out $300 billion in global fossil-fuel subsidies.”
“We’ve got to be tough” in cracking down on executive compensation British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said at a press briefing [...]

Rally fails, depression imminent!

When job losses of 500K+ per week are “cheered” because they are less than the prior months “revised” figures
When the US “market” can “rally” 3,500 points completely uninhibited, in the face of “narrower losses” and plunging revenues. Isn’t a loss a loss?
When the “market” has “priced in” significant earnings growth, yet the “estimates” set by [...]

Barton Biggs vs. Jeffrey Gundlach

- Barton Biggs: S&P Will Soar Another 20% This Year
-Jeffrey Gundlach: The benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 index is “extremely unlikely” to climb above 1,100, before collapsing again, he said during a conference call.
” Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) — The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may climb to 1,250 points by year-end to reflect the recovery [...]