brucekrasting.com / By Bruce Krasting / February 5, 2013
A few snippets of data from the Congressional Budget Office’s Budget and Economic Outlook 2003.
Estimated 10-year budge surplus = $5.6T.
Reality = $6.6T deficit. A 200+% miss.
Estimate for 2012 Debt Held by Public = $1.2T (5% of GDP).
Reality = Debt Held by Public = $11.6T. A 1000% miss.
Estimate for fiscal 2012 GDP = $17.4T.
Reality = $15.8T. A 25% miss.
Okay, it was not an easy period to forecast. But the fact is, no period is easy to model and forecast. The CBO assumed that there would be no recessions in the 2004-2012 period. The CBO got hit on the head with that assumption.
I think the CBO is making the same mistakes again in 2013. It has a crystal ball of what the future will look like. The CBO assessment is that there is nothing but blue skies ahead. Some more snippets; this time from the just released 2013 CBO report on our future:
- GDP is about to soar! It’s going to grow at more than double the current rate! Happy days are right around the corner. The economy is going to experience a period of sustained economic growth – and it’s going to star in just ten-months! Wow!