Concern for the freedom movement in Iran

Please be aware that the primary charge against those imprisoned and tortured is that they are conspiring with foreign devils to overthrow the beloved leader, etc.

For Obama to make a public statement would make this much worse. It’s what the hoods in Teheran want him to do. W would have walked right into it, probably - his intentions were the best, but he misunderstood and oversimplified a changed and brutal world.

I think we would be kidding ourselves to imagine that the US and several other nations don’t have assets all over Iran right now. How much direct support they can give the students is a good question - probably not much, because the opposition does not yet appear to be a centrally-controlled movement, which speaks all the more for its authenticity.

This is going to be a nail-biter for a long time, but there are positive signs in the fact that the opposition has come back each time it’s been stomped on, and that the clerical leadership has responded to pressure after the stories came out of the horrific treatment suffered by opposition detainees, by closing Evin and Kahrizak prisons and forcing some of those responsible to be tried for torture and murder.

There is a widening split in the government between the high religious authorities and the security forces - the brutality that is so commonplace is a deep blasphemy in Islam, and it therefore undermines the authority of the secular government that is caught in the middle. When the next revolution comes, if it has not already arrived, look for this split to turn into a chasm that swallows the secular government, as security and the religious militias face off over the wreckage.

- trader_x

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