Consumer confidence continues low, despite how much the market has rallied.

The wealth effect is not working this time as it has in the past many times. Consumption will only increase now if jobs begin to get created en masse. This doesn’t bode well for the holidays or the inventory restocking thesis.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumers-more-glum-in-early-november-survey-2009-11-13

Global inventory bounce remains in ernest. Imports rose substantially indicating that the consumer turned the corner right? Look a little deeper (something the media fails to do). They were primarily driven by an increase in oil and Autos. I really wouldn’t attribute us making another country richer by importing their oil as a positive at this point. As far as autos are concerned, was it organic or not? What very much touted stimulus was working its magic during that time? Cash for Clunkers! If anything this report shows me that the global imbalances continue. We are importing more than we export and that’s why the world has been full of exporters and one main consumer of the course of the last decade. This hasn’t changed.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-trade-gap-widens-sharply-in-september-2009-11-13
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aN1mKmvVAZp4

Meanwhile a declining dollar is causing havoc for the worlds exporters.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alQe1Esa_nIg&@#$%&!=4

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The bad news is still there…gnawing at the ever decreasing volume gains. Look at the financials XLF, the transports DJT, Oil, Copper (and inventories)….all are looking like they are rolling over.

Even though it’s not in vogue for the doomers predictions, I still am very bearish on all that’s going on. the stock market is so detached from reality it’s not even funny. Investors are pricing in a recovery in 2010. The most potent portion of the stimulus has just passed us. Once they figure out that there will not be any inflationary outcome from all the intervention the deflationary trade will be back on. The bond market hasn’t been fooled and for once neither have ma and pa investor. They are putting money into bond funds. They need to worry about retirement now and actually having money to live, not on speculation.

The market has risen to amazing heights in one of the most incredible rallies ever, that is something that every bear has to admit, but compare it to gold, to other metals, to other currencies, it really hasn’t done anything. it’s just gone down.

This is just to make it seem like it has risen, but in this certain numbers (Dow, S&P) do lie.

- Uformula

Related Posts:

• Economic data from every corner of the U.S still getting worse
• Economic Megatrends That Will Drive Our Future
• The Big Banks will not let the “market” drop.
• Kudos to Rosie for dissecting and exposing the deceptive GDP number.
• Where is your money going to go?

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