Conventional Oil plus NGL which I consider oil will never get above 86mmbbls/day again.
By Daniel at 4 December, 2009, 7:33 pm
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Why is basic geology, physics and economics. The investment to even keep that rate up is not being made.
In the US oil hasn’t been an indicator of growth for 3 decades as we now put out double the GNP/gal in constant $.
Facts are we are getting far more eff and will over the next decade, drop our energy needs/GNP by 50% again.
From transport to buildings our energy needs are dropping with no loss in living standards, in fact it is making them better.
NG and many other forms of energy are replacing oil as well as eff. As fossil energy rises in costs, the other forms are dropping like RE is 50% of what it once was. And as RE increases into rewall mass production, it will drop like a rock. I’m now buying retail PV panels at just $2k/kw and wind has dropped to $1.5k/kw including inverter plus tower and install.
Nissan is about to start selling next yr a 5 seat EV for the same cost as an ICE as will Ford. These go 3x’s as far on the same energy. My personal EV gets far better than that, costing under 25% of an ICE’s running cost including fuel and battery.
There is no reason most homes, buildings will need outside power for the same cost as present buildings before now . And no reason the home, building can’t even power the car, transport.
There is no shortage of energy, just the equipment to catch, make or use it eff. The only reason it’s not already wide spread is the subsidies on fossil fuels. If their real, full price was in them instead of in our income taxes, health costs, etc, they would be here now.
Back to oil. It will go up to $150bbl early 2011, cause another recession, drop back down, go up again higher, drop, etc until we stop importing oil. But in about 6-8 yrs, the tables will turn, oil price flattening out at about $10.gal as it is replaced with RE, NG. So don’t go too long on oil!!
- Jerry
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