DUBAI PROPERTY MARKET 2018 – Boom or Bust?
Dubai’s residential sales market saw a minor dip in prices in the third quarter of the year, with sale values down by around 1 per cent, according to the latest report from real estate consultancy CBRE.
“The disparity between rising deal volumes and the performance of the leasing sector, demonstrates how investors appear to be taking a longer-term view on the residential market, looking beyond softening rentals and focusing on the availability of attractive prices and the increasing flexibility of payment plans offered across both completed and off-plan projects,” said Mat Green, head of Research and Consulting UAE at CBRE Middle East.
Those include a new joint venture between Meydan and Sobha Group, ‘The Residences’ in Mohammed Bin Rashid City, Nakheel’s ‘Palm Residences’, and Wasl’s new flagship development ‘Wasl One’ located in Al Kifaf area.
“Developers in Dubai have been particularly active in the residential sector with JLL data suggesting up to 80,000 units could be delivered before the end of 2019, although actual deliveries are likely to be below this level, the report added. The consistent, albeit slower, rent declines indicate that sale prices need to adjust downward. The quantitative and qualitative analyses indicate rent declines will continue through 2017 and into 2018 as job growth remains low and new supply is handed over.
‘Rent declines slowed over the summer, but higher vacancies should push rents down faster in the coming real estate season. This is positive because the city will become more affordable for residents, which helps businesses by reducing employment costs. There is a fundamental shift in the demographics of Dubai and the real estate market has not yet adjusted to this new reality,’ added Downs.
Off-plan market transaction volumes remained steady due to developer subsidies in the form of post-handover payment plans. The report says that the result is a shadow financing market, which is creating an unhealthy divide between the primary and secondary markets.
‘Steady off-plan volumes are not an indicator of a healthy residential market. The post-handover payment plans artificially boost demand and will likely lead to overbuilding, compounding the problem in the years to come,’ Downs concluded. The diversion of apartment prices and rents is eroding yields and indicating further corrections are on the horizon, Downs wrote. The current vacancy rate stands at around 35 percent in preferred communities sampled while builders continue to add to the city’s supply, Downs said. There were only 360 apartments released at Dubai Marina in the first half of 2017, principally from the Vida Residences project.
But property values across Dubai Marina are down 3.7 per cent in the year to date, according to data from Reidin-GCP.
The average price of transaction as of June at the Marina was Dh1,474 a square foot.
“But there were 1,457 units launched in Business Bay and yet prices there have remained flat at Dh1,400 psf,” said Sameer Lakhani, Managing Director at the consultancy Global Capital Partners. JVC (Jumeirah Village Circle) there were just 647 units launched and yet prices inched up by 2.1 per cent, to Dh914 psf. One of the best performing freehold residential clusters in the city, Dubai South, is starting to develop a fairly active secondary market. Dubai “Dubai Property” “Dubai Villa” “Dubai Project” Project “Mega Project” Development investment “Dubai Investment” Price “Rent Dubai” “Sell Dubai” Market markets cycle “Dubai Expo 2020” “expo 2020” Emmar “Luxury Condo” “Abu Dhabi” “Rak Properties” Damac “villa for sale” “condo for sale” offplan “payment plan” finance “installment plan” mortgage loan debt 2018 2020 “new build” property “real Estate” agent rental returns growth Emaar Properties’ Mira development, launched in 2013 and recently completed on the outskirts of the city, a three-bedroom townhouse cost around AED 1.3m off-plan and now sells for at least AED 1.9m ($520,000). Another example is the Town Square project, launched by new developer Nshama. Three-bedroom town houses that were sold off-plan at an average of AED 1.2m
In the office market, certain areas have also bucked the downward trend in prices. In the Dubai International Financial Centre, rents remain the highest in the city with occupancy levels near 100 per cent.
There will be more residential supply in the coming years. Big projects include the Dubai Creek Harbour with The Tower, which will surpass the Burj Khalifa in height, and the development of Dubai South, the site of the Expo 2020. new tax regulations the government has introduced, will also boost economic growth and thus rejuvenate property markets, according to Faisal Durrani, head of research at Cluttons. Abu Dhabi