Dent told CNBC this afternoon:
We think markets are going to go up for a while. I think Maria [Bartiromo] is right – the market wants to go up.
We’ll see one more correction into this second fiscal cliff. I think we’ll see another rally into March, April, May, or something. By the summer, we get another crash.
I think it’s going to be a choppy rally – up, down, up, down, with an upward bias. It’s the second half that we think a crash starts – that, just like the last crash, lasts about a year and a half or so, goes into late 2014, early 2015.
We get a slight new high in the Dow this year, and then we get a slight new low in the next crash. That’s been the pattern. Higher highs in each bubble, slightly lower lows in each crash.
Again, this should not be something that people go, “Oh my gosh, how could this happen?” It’s been happening since 1995. Bubble, crash, bubble, crash, bubble, crash.
Here is what Dent told CNBC regarding why he expects this crash in the second half of 2013:
How many crashes have we seen in the last ten years or so? 2000, 2002 – bubble, crash. 2007 – bubble, crash. We’re getting a bubble and crash every four or five years.
This is what we have when you go over a demographic cliff. Remember Japan – Japan went over the demographic cliff. Peak in baby boom spending, peak real estate boom.
They had a bust. Guess what? 22 years later, real estate is still down over 60 percent, still drifting down. Stocks are down nearly 80 percent, not that far off their lows. They keep bubbling up and then going down to new lows.
This is the new normal, given that baby boomers are aging and the next generation is not only not in the workforce yet, largely, but they’re not as large when they do [enter]. So, we’re never going to see real estate prices at these levels again, and we’re not going to see stocks at the level we saw in 2007 for a long time.
So, to me, this is not unusual at all.
Dent told CNBC regarding the United States, “We call this the economy in a coma.”
DOW 6K: Harry Dent says HELL YEAH!
ROSENBERG: 6 Key Economic Indicators Show That The US Isn’t In Great Shape
By the end of 2012, once it was clear that the fiscal cliff would be avoided, the consensus was that the U.S. economy wrapped up the year in “some sort of accelerating trend”, according to Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg.
But Rosenberg says there are telling signs everywhere that this isn’t actually the case.
“Mortgage applications have fallen off a cliff of their own of late… What I am asking is that calendar quirks aside why on earth would railway car loadings, coal production, auto assemblies, raw steel output and port activity be contracting on a year-over-year basis if the economy is humming along as the consensus would have you believe?”
‘Dr. Doom’ Is Now ‘Deeply Uncomfortable’
Marc Faber, “The Gloom Boom & Doom Report,” explains why he owns gold and would look at Vietnam, China and Japan for investment opportunities this year.