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Everyone Is Bullish? Uh-Oh, SELL!


Josh Brown Explains The Huge Mistake That A Bunch Of Investors Are Going To Make Right Now

There is no doubt that in the past few weeks (arguably just the past week) there’s been a real breaking of the bearish spirit.

 

Bullishness is hitting all-time highs, and even some of the folks who were very skeptical about the economy, are turning positive.

Meanwhile, the S&P just broke 1500. As Josh Brown at The Reformed Broker notes, the NYT sent out a rare email newsblast to mark the occasion, that stocks had broken through this barrier, meaning the word is getting out. Stocks are on fire.

Of course, to many folks, their first idea is going to be: SELL SIGNAL.

But this crass contrarianism is silly. The idea that we’ve hit a top just because people are getting bullish, and aware of the stock market isn’t based in anything….

 

Jos. A Bank Announces The Mother Of All Friday Night News Dump Earnings Warnings

At 8:05 PM ET Friday, discount suit-seller Jos. A. Bank dropped a bombshell.

 

“[N]et income for fiscal year 2012 is expected to be approximately 20% lower than net income for fiscal year 2011,” they wrote.

According to Yahoo Finance, analysts were expecting earnings to climb around 8 percent from last year’s earnings of $3.49 per share.

Among other things, management blamed Hurricane Sandy, the election, the fiscal cliff, and warm weather.

 

The 12 Best Charts Of The Week

Strategists keep revising earnings forecasts lower while the market heads higher

Simply put: Europe is only beginning to deleverage

Simply put: Europe is only beginning to deleverage

KKR

 

British Economy Is WORSE than During the Great Depression

Leading British newspaper the Telegraph reports today:

Ministers today admitted Britain is facing “very, very grave difficulties” after figures showed the economy did not grow at all in 2012.

***

Economists from the Royal Bank of Scotland said the last four years have produced the worst economic performance in a non post-war period since records started being collected in the 1830s.

***

It’s the worst economic performance since at least 1830, outside of post-war demobilisations,” he told The Daily Telegraph. “It’s worse than the 1920s, it’s worse than the Great Depression.”

He said the economy has been “heading this way for a long time” because of the scale of the problems that came to a head in the 2008 financial crash.

***

The top economist at RBS, which is mostly owned by the Government, said it is difficult to recover when much of the world is facing similar problems.

“It’s the scale of what happened in 2008 but also the build-up to that,” he said. “Compared with other recessions [like in the 1980s and 1990s], this is happening all over the world. There’s not a quick and easy way to export your way out of this.”

(In a separate article, the Telegraph notes that the UK is heading for an unprecedented triple dip, as its economy shrunk .3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012).

We’ve repeatedly warned that this is worse than the Great Depression …

Bad Policy Has Us Stuck

We are stuck in a depression because the government has done all of the wrong things, and has failed to address the core problems.

Instead of bringing in new legs, we keep on recycling the same old re-treads who caused the problem in the first place.

For example:

  • The government is doing everything else wrong, as well. See this and this

This isn’t an issue of left versus right … it’s corruption and bad policies which help the super-elite but are causing a depression for the vast majority of the people.

 

Food prices on the rise, could triple 

Oil Set To Super-Spike 63%, Crushing Global Stock Markets

With continued volatility in gold and silver, top Citi analyst Tom Fitzpatrick believes that crude oil is now set up to surge as much as a staggering 63% in 2013. This would crush global stock markets, sending the wildly enthusiastic bulls reeling. Fitzpatrick provided King World News with 7 powerful charts to illustrate the danger this situation poses to the bulls. Fitzpatrick has been incredibly accurate regarding his forecasts so KWN takes his warning very seriously.

Here is what top Citi analyst Fitzpatrick had to say, along with powerful charts: “We have constantly articulated the view through our longer term overlays in particular that the US Equity market was establishing a topping phase that could yield a retracement lower in the months ahead of 20%+.

This suggests that price action in the weeks ahead may be quite critical in determining whether this expected turn lower is going to materialize.

 

Europe’s Crisis Not Over Say Bankers, Policymakers

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