Excellent link re: unemployment benefits expiring.
By Daniel at 7 August, 2009, 9:21 am
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Nice concluding paragraphs:
Quote
Unparalleled Continuing Claims
On a percentage of population basis this recession is unparalleled.
Making matters worse, the US consumer was nowhere near as leveraged to real estate in 1980 or 1982 as now. Also note that boomers are heading into retirement now, undercapitalized and looking for jobs, in effect competing against their kids and grandkids for jobs.
Look at the average age of baggers in grocery stores or greeters at Walmart. These people are not working because they want to; they are working because they have to. Demand for jobs is at an all time high while the number of available jobs and the pay scales of those jobs have both collapsed. The employment situation is not only an unmitigated disaster, things are about to get worse with pending state cutbacks.
Because of expiring claims, continuing claims data will soon start looking better. The reality however, is things will get worse for another year as unemployment soars into double digits. My forecast in January was 10.8% in 2010 while the Fed’s was 8.5%. I see no reason to change mine, but the Fed upped theirs.
The implications for housing and especially commercial real estate are ominous.
End Quote
“Go find a bank you love and short it.”
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Story: U.S. stock-index futures point higher (7 days ago)
Weekly jobless claims up 25K to 584K.
Rally!
LOL
Continuing claims decline.
On benefits exhaustion.
Think about it, if job losses continue to increase, that can be the only reason for declining claims.
The CNBC pimps are falling all over themselves foaming at the mouth.
Steve Reisman is saying maybe GDP will be up 4-5%.
GE bullhorn real estate channel, they’ve been pimping the market through two crashes.
Zero accountability.
tarn
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