Chinese Economy Grows at Slowest Pace in 13 Years; What’s Next for China?
Inquiring minds note the growth slowdown in China: China’s economy stumbles in May, growth seen sliding in Q2.
China’s economy grew at its slowest pace for 13 years in 2012 and so far this year economic data has surprised on the downside, bringing warnings from some analysts that the country could miss its growth target of 7.5 percent for this year.
“Growth remains unconvincing and the momentum seems to have lost pace in May,” Louis Kuijs, an economist at RBS, said in a note. “The short-term growth outlook remains subject to risks and we may well end up revising down our growth forecast for 2013 further.”
May exports to both the United States and the European Union – China’s top two markets – both fell from a year earlier for the third month running.
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/06/chinese-economy-grows-at-slowest-pace.html#C4wtB0RbO6DIB615.99
Chinese Trade Growth Collapsed Because The Old Numbers Were A Sham
Dramatic decline in Risk Appetite took place of late!
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The Risk Appetite Index took a rather swift decline in the past couple of weeks, declining to the 18% level. Opinions in the stock, bond, currency and metals markets impacts this index. (Sentiment Trader)
The decline of less than 5% in stocks drove the VIX up nearly 50% in a two week window, another reflection of fear coming into the markets.
Gut checks: Fear creeps back in, cash piles shrink
Apparently, investors didn’t get their fill from Friday’s jobs-induced 207-point rally, and no amount of governmental snooping is going to keep them removed from the stock game. At least in the early going.
Still, the ride looks anything but smooth for the foreseeable future withthe appetite for risk-tolerance plunging in recent sessions. In fact, action on the volatility gauge VIX over the past few weeks suggests fear is creeping back in large doses. Just look at the turbulent market action we’ve seen lately. Blue chips have knocked out triple-digit swings in six of the past nine sessions after just four swings of that magnitude in the first 20 weeks of the year.
Keep an eye on Japan and the U.S.
Recent moves in the US and Japanese bond markets have some people worried if interest rates are doomed to surge.
The consensus certainly seems to think so.
Goldman Sachs’ Francesco Garzarelli has warned clients that the bond sell is “for real” with 10-year Treasury yields likely to head to 2.5% later this year.
In a note to clients this morning, Societe Generale’s Patrick Legland reminds clients that their analysts expect the 10-year Treasury surging to 2.75% by the end of the year.
Legland communicated this in a note titled “Are We Facing A Bond Crash? Not Yet, But…”
In the note, he discuss the risk of a disorderly bond market sell-off. Here’s the “but” explained:
More volatility: a worrying sign
The chart below shows the Athens Stock Exchange today.
Business Insider/Matthew Boesler, data from Bloomberg
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