Forget the specific data being released this next week … the BIG picture is what is now in play:

*The Euro is slowly collapsing.

*Sovereign European Debt Issues of some European countries are turning turtle and there is a MOUNTAIN of derivities written utilizing those debt issues.

*Deutsche Bank has now “beat out” JP Morgan Chase’s derivities exposure book (who thought that was even possible?!!) … with a LOT LESS capital to protect it against down stream insolvencies (which is an increasing possibility due to the problems with European Sovereign Debt Issues)

*Euro land is clearly already in a recession, and as the banking /financial crisis grows the recession will only deepen if history is any guide

*The US Central Bank has SUDDENLY pulled in the rate of money creation and while it is still positive the rate of growth has been altered quite dramatically.

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*Industrial Job Growth actually turned negative in a couple of key industrial states in March … after being positive since near the bottom of the recession, indicating SUDDENLY weakening demand on the industrial side of the equation (at this stage of the recovery industrial job growth should be accellerating, NOT decellerating)

*Finally “Obama Care” is going to be a huge drag on job creation going forward for the rest of the year due to both REAL higher costs per employee AND uncertainty as to what those higher costs will be.

All the above is information that will slowly creap into the market over time as different players absorb the information at different times, but ALL the above are BIG NEGATIVES when looked at on a 9 month to 24 month basis so the “Sell in May” crowd are probably going to be right … AGAIN … this year.

Old Trader


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