Friday unemployment report preview:

OK, unemployment numbers come out on Friday, I have looked at this several times and now think this is the way things will happen in the next two reports. I expect the ACTUAL to grow by 400,000, the rate to go from 10.0% to 9.7%. Then I expect the actual for Jan in the Feb release to grow by 1,000,000 and the rate to drop to 9.2%. This will all be because of seasonal adjustments, and the unemployed WILL NOT find new positions, but remain in place to drive up over 11%.

Month …Actual….Adj. Factor….Reported……Rate
Nov…….14,407…0.937………….15,375……….10.0%
Dec…….14,807…0.9902………..14,953……….9.7%…Est.
Jan……..15,807…1.1120………..14,215……….9.2%….Est.

It will be interesting to see if I am right, I am guessing about 400,000 lose jobs in December, 50% of last year, and 1,000,000 lose them in January, 50% of last year. If I am wrong than the economy is REALLY in trouble. Also, I DO NOT expect these folks to find jobs which is why the rate will take back off again in the spring when the adjustment factors go back down. This is what happened this year, the unemployed number in the survey remained flat from Aug to Nov.

By the way, the ACTUALS last year:

Nov…..10,015
Dec…..10,999
Jan…..13,009

All numbers are in thousands.

- irishscot2

Related Posts:

• The unemployment rate could hit 10.3% in Friday’s report.
• A Suggestion for President Obama and his economic advisers
• There is a huge risk of double dip recession is the government is not careful.
• Why do I think the “seasonal adjustments” for unemployment are no longer valid?
• Job seekers: Looking for a job is a waste of time.

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