FYI: Jobs will be driven by a higher new homes number. It ain’t happening:

Well folks, below is my analysis of the RATIO of new homes sales to the available workforce

Year …. Ratio …. Total …. Emp (1,000)
1963 …. 0.780 …. 560 …. 71,833
1964 …. 0.773 …. 565 …. 73,091
1965 …. 0.772 …. 575 …. 74,455
1966 …. 0.608 …. 461 …. 75,770
1967 …. 0.631 …. 488 …. 77,347
1968 …. 0.622 …. 490 …. 78,737
1969 …. 0.556 …. 449 …. 80,734
1970 …. 0.587 …. 486 …. 82,771
1971 …. 0.779 …. 657 …. 84,382
1972 …. 0.822 …. 715 …. 87,034
1973 …. 0.708 …. 633 …. 89,429
1974 …. 0.564 …. 519 …. 91,949
1975 …. 0.587 …. 550 …. 93,774
1976 …. 0.673 …. 647 …. 96,158
1977 …. 0.828 …. 820 …. 99,008
1978 …. 0.800 …. 818 …. 102,250
1979 …. 0.675 …. 709 …. 104,962
1980 …. 0.510 …. 545 …. 106,940
1981 …. 0.401 …. 436 …. 108,670
1982 …. 0.375 …. 413 …. 110,204
1983 …. 0.558 …. 622 …. 111,550
1984 …. 0.563 …. 639 …. 113,544
1985 …. 0.596 …. 688 …. 115,461
1986 …. 0.635 …. 748 …. 117,834
1987 …. 0.561 …. 672 …. 119,865
1988 …. 0.555 …. 675 …. 121,669
1989 …. 0.525 …. 650 …. 123,869
1990 …. 0.425 …. 535 …. 125,840
1991 …. 0.401 …. 507 …. 126,346
1992 …. 0.475 …. 608 …. 128,105
1993 …. 0.515 …. 666 …. 129,200
1994 …. 0.511 …. 670 …. 131,056
1995 …. 0.503 …. 665 …. 132,304
1996 …. 0.566 …. 758 …. 133,943
1997 …. 0.591 …. 805 …. 136,297
1998 …. 0.643 …. 885 …. 137,673
1999 …. 0.632 …. 881 …. 139,368
2000 …. 0.615 …. 877 …. 142,583
2001 …. 0.632 …. 909 …. 143,734
2002 …. 0.671 …. 972 …. 144,863
2003 …. 0.743 …. 1,088 …. 146,510
2004 …. 0.816 …. 1,203 …. 147,401
2005 …. 0.859 …. 1,283 …. 149,320
2006 …. 0.695 …. 1,052 …. 151,428
2007 …. 0.507 …. 776 …. 153,124
2008 …. 0.314 …. 485 …. 154,287
2009 …. 0.261 …. 402 …. 154,006

And as far as “unexpected” - I have been warning for two months that the seasonal adjustment factors were going to drive the number to it’s true negative this month. It is all simple math and analysis folks. Look into the reports in detail, do not be sheeple!!!

Edit on:

Another new homes note - these are the ACTUAL numbers by month YTD:

Jan - 24,000
Feb - 29,000
Mar - 31,000
Apr - 32,000
May - 34, 000
Jun - 37,000
Jul - 37,000
Aug - 37000
Sep - 31,000

Total YTD - 292,000
Avg TD - 32,000
Most expected for year: 389,000

Lowest historical year since 1963 - THIS YEAR!
Number of people in workforce 1963 - 71,833,000
Number of people in workforce 2009 - 154,006,000 (recently adjusted down for the first time)

Economic growth impact - NONE!

Written by irishscot2

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