Last week, the misty eyed reminiscences were recalling the 25th anniversary of Black Monday. Today, we look even further back. 83 years back to be precise to this date in hallowed antiquity, when in 1929 the selling had officially begun, with what would ultimately culminate as the Great Crash. Cue Art Cashin: “on this Thursday morning, the market opened nervous but relatively steady. Within the first half hour, prices began to fade and the tape began to run late. By noon the tape was nearly an hour and-a-half late in reporting transactions in a market that had opened only two hours before. To speed the reporting digits were deleted and so “Radio” which had opened at 68 3/4 now showed on the tape at 8 3/4. But prices were moving so fast that the price was not 58 3/4 but 48 3/4 on its way to 48 1/4 before it would bottom in the afternoon at 44 1/2. To avoid confusion the Exchange published flash prices of selected securities on the slower moving bond tape.” By early afternoon the cascade of prices caused an emergency meeting at the offices of J.P. Morgan across the street from the Exchange….”
Apple Reports After Market Close On Thursday And Analysts Are Already Start Cutting Estimates For Next Week’s Earnings. If They Still Miss, Market Will Crash.
Here’s one reason Apple’s stock has been tanking lately.
Analysts are cutting back their estimates for fiscal fourth quarter (calendar third quarter) which Apple reports next week.
Philip Elmer DeWitt has a round up of three recent notes. Essentially, all three blame iPhone 5 supply issues for a worse than expected quarter.
The iPhone 5 has been sold out around the world since day one. It could be because Apple is struggling to make the phones, or it could be because it has been very aggressively rolling out the new phone around the world. Whatever the reason may be, analysts think Apple didn’t sell that many iPhone 5s in the last week of September.
One other reason analysts are cautious is the slowdown of PC sales, which they think will affect Mac sales.
STOCK MARKET IS CARSHING: DuPont Bottom Line Is Lower By 98%, UPS’s Earning Fell by 56%, And BERNANKE Is Leaving The Fed!!
ICJ has surged more than 25 percent since Thursday. That is, by far, the biggest move of its kind on the index in the past few years.
Bloomberg, Business Insider
(You can find a technical explanation of how the index is calculated here.)
When the implied correlation rises, it’s usually a symptom of a risk-on, risk-off market environment – investors rushing to buy stocks all at once, or everyone heading for the exits at the same time.
A jump like this in the ICJ may suggest that headline-driven markets are making a big comeback.
Moreover, the ICJ has been found to have a bit of predictive power when it comes to the S&P 500 index. Research by Boston College economist Hongtao Zhou explains how:
We ?nd a close relationship between the SPX return in the next 7 to 10 months and the current information set of SPX and ICJ weekly returns. We check the robustness of this result by resorting to 3 di?erent sample splits and our model consistently beats the benchmark random walk model.
Another interesting ?nding is that the coe?cient sign of the interacted term in our model is consistently positive for three di?erent models. Intuitively, this indicates that when we observe a stock market rally or slump with a strengthened average correlation, the current market trend is most likely to continue in the future 7 to 10 months.