GOLDMAN: There’s Almost A 50% Chance Of A Negative Outcome In Italy Tomorrow

Reminder: The first exit polls from the Italian election will hit some time around 9 AM ET, before US markets officially open.


The hope for World markets/the EU/Italian elites is that the center-left parties get enough votes to form a stable majority.

The fear is that there will be a big surge for the conservative (Berlusconi) and populist (Beppe Grillo) movements, making a government untenable, and thus risking a backsliding of Italy’s reforms, causing borrowing costs to jump, and thus reigniting the European crisis. Italy is Europe’s largest debt market, and the third largest in the world.

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