Great article on Barry Ritholz’s site about housing and what the numbers are telling us:
By Daniel at 25 August, 2009, 9:30 am
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“The latest housing consensus as sung in three part harmony amongst the media and green shoots crowd. Their song goes something like this:
1) The worst of the housing trouble is now behind us;
2) Only recently, Housing was “Getting worse more slowly;”
3) That has transitioned to “Housing is getting better.”
I don’t believe it. IMO, all 3 are misleading or outright wrong. This post explains why.
On Friday, the market rallied smartly – and while expiry had something to do with it, the larger part of the gains came after the release of the Existing Home Sales data. Traders’ kneejerk reaction seemed to reflect the belief that not only is the worst of Housing now behind us, but that Housing was actually getting better.
Indeed, Housing is going to be a growth driver for the economy going forward!
Only, not so much. A close look at the data reveals this to be a false premise. If you only read the NAR spin, its easy to fall into their web of happy talk. (We’ve said it so many times, it still bears repeating: The National Association of Realtors are a highly misleading news source. Look past what they say to the actual numbers if you seek economic truth).”
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/existing-home-sales-not-as-advertised/
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