Curious why the topic of tomorrow’s €430 million non-Greek law bond maturity payment (which we first pointed out as a D-Day type of cash outflow for the Greek people) is particularly touchy for Greece? Simple: if Greece makes the payment it will see its already in the read cash balance drop by 30%. Which would mean the country will likely not pass go and go straight into looting mode once the people realize that some evil, evil hedge fund hold outs (who are doing precisely what they are contractually entitled to, and what we said back in January would be the event that breaks the bank, i.e., holding out). Because as Bloomberg points out, “the level of funds in Greece’s state coffers has fallen below 1.5 billion euros ($1.9 billion), Imerisia reported, citing “reliable information.” If the state doesn’t receive predicted revenue for the rest of this month, it will find it difficult to pay for social services, pensions and public-sector wages, the newspaper said.” Translation: when the money runs out, it’s game over. But it will also be game over if and when Greece either does not want to or does not have the cash to pay tomorrow.
Things are moving fast now.