Ha-ha-ha! “Now is a great time to buy!”
By Daniel at 14 November, 2009, 5:47 pm
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ron Paul laughed when he explained the stupidity of propping up out of control property prices, rather than let them find their own bottom naturally through the market. It is ridiculous for us to be paying tax dollars to those buying overpriced housing.
They want us to work for $10/ hour and buy homes fro $200,000. That’s how we got in this mess in the first place. No one making $10/ hr can save any down payment and the old rule would say they can’t afford anything more than a $35,000 to $50,000 mortgage, and that would take into consideration you’d have a job for the duration of the mortgage, and that your job wouldn’t be replace by some foreigner getting $10 a day.
If you’re dumb enough and not learned your lesson about the NAR which is one of the most egregious b.s spinners on the face of the earth, you need help. Of course, property in Armpit, Nebraska or Horseass, Dakota might have bottomed out but in Los Angeles (for example) look for another 15% to 20% or more drop in prices over the next two years.
We are already seeing what happens when Bankruptcy Ben’s magic printing press stops printing confetti dollars which are then used to prop up the real estate market and the auto industry….once the money prop is removed, the sales numbers go into a STEEP nose dive.
There is a simple answer as to when the property market will recover for real. When the ACTUAL employment figures (NOT government manipulated figures) rise SUBSTANTIALLY for a PERIOD OF TIME with being stimulated by the government via Bankruptcy Ben’s printing press. THEN and ONLY THEN, will the recovery be real. However, even Bankruptcy Ben admits the employment picture will look grim for a LONG time. My guess is 2 to 3 years before property prices become stable and 15 to 20 years before they reach the prices during the sub-prime bubble. Everything has changed. It’s now a totally different ball game.
-FFS
====================================
THE NAR is irrelevant in terms of statistics. They are cheerleaders for their industry, nothing more.
Shadow inventory is still a huge issue, and it is growing. See:
SHADOW INVENTORY DWARFS LOAN MODS
By: Diana Olick
Tuesday, 10 Nov 2009
…
LPS’ October Mortgage Monitor also cites large “shadow” foreclosure and REO inventories. The number of loans deteriorating further into delinquent status is now more than twice the number of foreclosure starts, indicating another major wave of troubled loans in an already clogged loan pipeline. Nearly one-third of foreclosures remain in pre-sale status after 12 months - twice as many as the year prior. The six-month average deterioration ratio has risen the past two months to 300 percent, showing that for every loan that improves in status, three more deteriorate further.
…article continues…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33834317
—————-
A 3:1 ratio of deteriorating to improving loans! Folks, the article and quotes go on to discuss March / April 2010 as a really turbulent time for many of the known reasons. Pull out the Credit Suisse graphs and buckle up.
If nine homes are being foreclosed on for every one bought, and two are entering delinquency for every one entering foreclosure, there are some real problems for the economy ahead.
Nor does the article mention the average value of the homes the NAR predicts will be bought. From other articles, I surmise that these houses would most likely be pre-existing, on the low end of the valuation spectrum, and probably foreclosures and/or sub $200,000 homes. So an uptick solely on a percentage basis is meaningless without further qualification. Builders and the housing construction industry are still hurting.
I’m a realtor here in Texas and I’ve had a record year in sales. But I do agree what a joke when you see everyone losing there job’s and barely hanging onto what they have. Then you have Fannie Mae becoming a land lord because the market is HOT. I can see retirement coming soon, or the end. I’ll take the second choice. 2010 will get ugly.
- cowboy
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trackbacks & Pingbacks