The nice/bad thing about the new year, is that I always review the past years results. I get to see how “I” did, and then how my portfolios did. They are DIFFERENT! In other-words, did my actions add to or subtract from the overall results. First, I maybe the last long, buy and hold investor on the planet. Around the bottom, I reworked the weaker stocks out, and replaced with “Newer” versions, The net results, a wash, minus the $280. trade costs. ($7. per trade 20 transactions X 2). Options for the year, I did 23 trades, 80% expired, 10% even, 10% 100% gains or more. A minus on options!! Cash at beginning of the year, $49., at the end of the year $5000. Gun is not empty, which has been a problem in the past when good ideas come up, and no cash. Setting stops, did not do
the work to both protect and profit better, an area that this year will be critical! I had total 129 trades in 2009 in personal trade account, 10 per month average. The portfolio is down 8% since opening in 2003. Been a hard 6 years in the market, and I can do better than that. My managed 401K, has recovered nicely, still less than even, but the DRIP has added value slowly and steadily, as it will.
So, what do I expect for 2010? The markets are between the 50% and 61.8 retracements. The 61.8 on DJIA is 11273, I expect to be pulling the straps of my parachute tight at that point, with a 10% bearish stance, minimum, with cash to quickly go to 40%+! Do I want to do this…..who cares, I will follow what the markets give me. So, here’s the years unknowns for me: Trends in the market
go longer than we think they can. Trends are more extreme than we expect. Events happen much quicker than in the past, recent past too! Faster than we can act! Events tend to revert back to the mean, trends may not for a long time……V’s and spikes, are just that kind of event. I worry about the March to April time period, will the government spending overcome loss of value in the dollar? What will the times look like if Gold and Silver double in price? $2500. Gold, $35. Silver, Dollar?? Euro?? Yen?? Yuan?? Will new cars start at $30,000., rather than $15,000.?? Nice suit $2500.?? Gasoline $7.99 per gallon?? Food????
What will my retirement look like this year? Will my pension be safe? Will my Soc.Sec. be safe? will my stocks hold their value, and possibly grow a little? Will my new self employment plan work as I hope it will? Will I have time and energy to do the pleasures I enjoy in life, without the fears of the unknown taking it all away? Oh the uncertainties of life, one would be a fool not to be concerned but, that’s also life, no guarantees in the contract, and still no owners manual!
zinfool
