Historic North Atlantic Superstorm Possible for Saturday
By Fred Pickhardt On January 23, 2013
NOAA OPC Surface Forecast 12Z 25 January 2013 showing possible historic storm low.
A historic extratropical storm is possible over the central North Atlantic on Saturday, the 26th of January based on the latest computer models. A weak 1014mb low will move off the Virginia and North Carolina coasts early Thursday. It will move rapidly east to northeast, deepening to a 977 mb storm low by 12Z Friday, the 25th, southeast of Cape Race with winds up to 50 knots. Thereafter, this low is forecast to “bomb out” as it moves northeast, dropping 57 mb of pressure to 920 mb by 12Z Saturday, the 26th, with hurricane force winds of 85 knots (nearly 100 mph) likely.
The all-time record for North Atlantic extratropical storms was the Braer Storm of January 1993 that reached a minimum pressure of 914 mb (26.99 in Hg) on January 10th. The 1993 storm caused blizzard conditions across much of Scotland and also led to the final breakup of the oil tanker MV Braer, which had been stranded in rocks off the Shetland Islands by a previous storm.
a millibar lower than last run, monster extratropical storm forecast to reach 919 mb over N. Atlantic.
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According to the model GFS 48 hours pressure in centre down at least to 928!
“The all-time record for North Atlantic extratropical storms was the Braer Storm of January 1993 that reached a minimum pressure of 914 mb (26.99 in Hg) on January 10th”
@MJGrimsby – N and W of the UK at risk of gales/severe gales perhaps middle of next week.
The variability of the UK’s weather will be in evidence from this wk to the next from cold/snow/local blizzards to gales/heavy rain & floods
1 hMatthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81
Cue the cyclogenesis as the tropospheric ‘Hoover’ is engaged into next week
Normalized GPH anomalies in addition to analogous height analyses confirm ongoing weak and disturbed polar vortex with at least two major vortices: the first one, which was anchored atop the Hudson Bay for the past few days gradually shifts east/northeast. Attendant impressive height gradients (e.g. 90-100 “500 hPa gpdm” difference from Greenland to the subtropical Atlantic) assist in rapidly increasing baroclinity and numerous intense vortices (at least one of those will be a tremendous warm-seclusion process with an explosive deepening rate of at least 60 hPa during my forecast period far south of Greenland). This increase in activity will have an influence on the far western part of Europe, where deep tropospheric warming spreads east.
The second vortex (less well defined) is still placed over far N/NE Europe, where the coldest air of Europe at all levels will be found. However at 500 hPa, low heights extend far south and cover most of Europe with surface high pressure in place over C-Europe.
Currently at 995 mb — 6-hourly pressure time series: 987, 980, 963, 935, 922, 919 at tau+36. 65mb/24hours is ferocious/extreme deepening
5 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue
GFS back to 919 mb with explosive cyclone off east coast that will move WNW of Iceland during next 36-48 hours.
The low in the W Atlantic goes from 987mb to 938mb in about 18hrs!
327. trHUrrIXC5MMX01:05 PM GMT em 25 de Janeiro de 2013
Incredible, explosive cyclogenesis will occur during the next 24 hours as a low pressure, analyzed to 988 mb at Jan 25/06Z, rapidly intensifies to 927 mb by Jan 26/06Z (24 hour position denoted by the small “X”). The latest OPC products forecast winds to 80 knots along with significant wave heights of 16 meters!