I really don’t know what to make out of today!

A lot of nothing happened; no big moves upward or downward, no big volume, and nothing alarming.

My experience is telling me that we should be in a “big” correction which I thought was well underway; I just cannot figure out this market right now!

Maybe in a few days, or a week or so, the direction of the market will become more definitive.

Did a little buying today, but I am still going to be very cautious until I see something concrete happening!

One good thing today, hit an 83 out of the golf course!

Not going to find me sitting in front of the computer all day; the market will do it’s own thing without my direction - LOL!

My question is, “How long can the Plunger Team hold the Market up?” Everything looks like it should have dropped like a rock already.

You know, some are betting that since unemployment is a lagging indicator, if it starts to lessen, then we must be starting to recover. Also, they believe that the market is a leading indicator, so this market going up so much must be a sign that we are recovering.

Unemployment is not going to just evaporate. Even when companies get large orders, it takes awhile for them to start re-ordering and re-hiring. So even if the growth of unemployment moderates in the coming months, it is going to stay stubbornly high.

The stock market’s rise was driven by technicals: the banks got a one time sweet deal as AIG unwound some swaps, and there was a lot of short covering from truly low levels. With such high unemployment, all we can look forward to is lighter sales and more foreclosures. Absent earnings, the market will come back to earth.

One wonders if the people starting to be foreclosed upon have any stock. Clearly, people out of work and trying to save a house would have to sell stock — even if it means selling at a loss.

So, with stocks rising on hope and a few technicals, absent good earnings with more pressure to sell coming from those who either need to make a payment or eat, down to sideways seems a good bet for the market.

Related Posts:

• This confidence fall comes as NO surprise.
• Beige Book. DOW 14000.
• 5 Warning Signs The Rally Could Be Over (as presented by trader Adam Mesh) He makes some good points and worthy of sharing IMO:
• Do not equate what the market does to the Depression we are in.
• Why investors are paying more attention to Washington than earnings.

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