EUROPE is not well. But forget about the hundreds of millions of Europeans who stand to suffer from a deepening of the continent’s misfortunes, if you can. What about America? Won’t anyone think of us for a change? How about the president? Won’t anyone think of him for once? What happens to our presidential election if between now and November Europe is visited by the dread Grexodus, or whatever we’re calling it, and everything goes to hell? Mitt Romney becomes a real boy, is my guess.
Last November, Nate Silver of the New York Times laid out the following scenario, using his model for forecasting election outcomes:
Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee, and economic growth, rather than continuing along sluggishly, comes to a halt (perhaps the debt dominoes have fallen in Europe). Under these assumptions, Obama would only have a 17 percent chance—about one in six—of winning a majority of the popular vote.