Important News - Nov. 18
By Daniel at 18 November, 2009, 11:52 pm
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Housing market: 2010 and possibly 2011 is not going to be pretty.
I am a builder and I project that 2010 will see a huge decline in starts and inventory. Builders are selling their inventory at prices that are not profitable which provides no incentive to start new homes. Banks are not lending for spec homes either so 2010 will be a very dismal year. The few builders that survive 2010 will look like POW camp survivors and will not be inclined or able to do more than minimal activity in 2011 regardless of the demand.
2010 and possibly 2011 is not going to be pretty. For every property being sold at the moment, another 9 are arriving on the market via foreclosures. You do not have to be a math professor to figure out the NAR and the government are lying. Just like the fake government figures of 9% unemployment, when the TRUE figure is 17% are manipulated.
“ One troubling sign: one-quarter of the $180 billion of apartment-building loans on Fannie’s books were originated near the top of the market in 2007 and those loans account for nearly half of all its commercial-loan delinquencies.”
“The support level for the commodity will now be at $1,000, which was the precious metal’s resistance level previously, Faber said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Singapore today.”…
“Will it go $2,000, $200,000 or $2 trillion? I don’t know,” Faber said. “But if you have money printing in the world, then the price will over time rise. It will go up more for things that you just can’t increase the supply, and the supply of precious metals is very limited.”
“LAS VEGAS—Las Vegas City Council members are beginning to consider ways to deal with a projected budget shortfall of more than $400 million over the next five years.
City officials say city finance chief Mark Vincent will address the council Wednesday about the state of a deficit that has grown since the last projection in May.
At that time, the shortfall was projected at about $240 million over the next five years.”
“WATSONVILLE - The city will close a long list of services during Thanksgiving week, a cost-cutting measure aimed at balancing the city budget.
Watsonville has been dealing with a $4.5 million general fund deficit and most city employees agreed earlier in the year to take 10 percent pay cuts.”
- 5) State, for 1st time, forced to get a loan (Arizona)
“As lawmakers convened Tuesday to start chipping away at a $2 billion budget deficit, the state is preparing to turn to outside lenders for the first time in Arizona history.
The borrowing is needed to give the state enough cash to carry it through ongoing revenue shortfalls, state Treasurer Dean Martin said.
He estimates the state will need to borrow $700 million to see it through the June 30 end of the fiscal year. As of Tuesday, Martin said, the state had exceeded its threshold of $500 million in IOUs and would need to turn to institutional lenders. To date, the state has been borrowing against internal accounts.”
“TALLAHASSEE — As lawmakers grapple with a shortfall for the coming fiscal year that could total as much as $2.7 billion, there’s another financial headache looming on the horizon:
The pending expiration of the federal stimulus money that the state used to patch holes in its $66.5 billion spending plan for the current spending year.
In education alone, that could cost the state more than $1.2 billion in education funding in the 2011-12 spending year, blowing a larger hole in an already stretched education budget.
That’s on top of other areas where a far-from-robust economy is still expected to hamper tax revenues, with the result being a shortfall as high as $5.4 billion.”
- 7) $1 billion short? State may get loan (Minnesota)
“The state of Minnesota’s financial picture looks so bleak that top officials are considering a rare move: Borrowing money to make sure the state can pay its bills next year.
Tom Hanson, commissioner of Minnesota Management and Budget, told a legislative subcommittee Thursday that the slow recovery could trigger general fund shortfalls in the spring significant enough to warrant short-term borrowing for the first time in a quarter-century. The state’s tax collections are already $223 million lower than officials predicted.”
“UC President Mark Yudof says the 10-campus system needs a $913 million increase in state funding next year. He has argued that the fee hikes are necessary to help reduce a half billion dollar budget deficit made worse by recent cuts by the state.
Meanwhile, California State University Chancellor Charles B. Reed is recommending asking for an increase of $884 million for 2010-11. The board of regents will be meeting at UCLA over the next couple days.
The finance committee is expected to approve the 32-percent hike in fees today with the board of regents following suit and passing the proposal tomorrow. If it goes through, this would be the first time annual UC tuition surpasses the $10,000 mark.”
- 9) Ambac Reports Its Capital Surplus Almost Tripled in Quarter (Look how they did it)
“Ambac Assurance Corp.’s regulatory surplus climbed to $856 million as of Sept. 30 from $305.6 million at the end of June, the company said today”
“Ambac increased its surplus in part by tearing up credit- default swap contracts on $5 billion of collateralized debt obligations in exchange for $520 million in payments to counter- parties, according to the filing today.”
“Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said policy makers may not start to raise rates until early 2012 while facing a “too low for two long” argument that may “weigh heavily” on the central bank.”
“Because of increased retirement rates and other factors, the employer contribution rates may have to increase from 12 percent of payroll in 2008 to 18 percent in five years. The retirement fund, which was about 85 percent funded in 2008, is on a downward course to be 60 percent funded in 2013.
Local agencies such as the county and city of Ceres are struggling with budget shortfalls, so they are not looking forward to increasing their contributions for the fiscal year that starts July 1.”
- 12) Chris Martenson on Energy and Peak Oil…(Video posted at nathan’s Economic Edge)
“Interesting talk by Chris, about 10 minutes long.”
“Cash-strapped New York City homeowners are being hit with hefty property tax increases. And the reason is hard for homeowners to both understand and swallow.
To city homeowners it gives new meaning to the term fuzzy math. Their property values have plummeted but their taxes are going up.
And they are furious.”
“The report noted that the four largest investment firms in Manhattan — Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and the investment banking arm of JPMorgan Chase — earned $22.5 billion in the first nine months, in contrast to losses of more than $40.3 billion in 2008, primarily at Merrill.”….
“Fueling the gains were extraordinary profits from the firms’ own securities trading accounts as they borrowed at near-zero interest rates and put the money to work in the securities markets. Member firms on the New York Stock Exchange earned a record $35.7 billion for their broker-dealer operations in the first six months, $8.9 billion more that the previous high in 2000, the state comptroller said.
In turn, the profits are contributing to a resurgence of bonuses on Wall Street. Six of the top American bank holding companies set aside $112 billion for salaries and bonuses, including deferred payments, in the first nine months, Mr. DiNapoli reported.”
……….“They come from Citigroup, they come from Goldman Sachs, ….it is the banks owning the country. It is the greatest bank robbery in American history”, says Celente.
15) Hank Greenberg: AIG’s TARP funds were mostly just pay outs to benefit Goldman Sachs et all funneled through AIG.
16) Worth a read: DeLong: Odds Increasing That We’re Headed For A Great Depression
After years of saying there was no chance of the economy getting that bad, Brad DeLong now thinks it’s a possibility.
17) Real Estate In Trouble - Could A 2008-Like Decline Be Next?
Today’s top story is that housing starts in October unexpectedly fell to their lowest level in six months. Keep in mind this is despite the tax credit for first-time home buyers. But that’s not all.
*Nicolas Cage forecloses 2 homes
*Goldman Sachs sells Miami condos for a 66% loss
*Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - in trouble again
18) CA housing situation report: $3M Peninsula Home Raffled for $150
Housing prices are still high in the Bay Area, so hearing you could own a large home with a view on the peninsula for just $150 tends to catch the eye.
19) Paul/Grayson Seek To End Fed Currency Swaps
- Saxplayer00o1
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