Important News - Nov. 24
By Daniel at 24 November, 2009, 1:36 pm
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Paul: Audit the Fed
“JPMorgan Chase & Co., the second- largest U.S. bank, said the dollar will fall to a record low next year on signs the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates near zero until 2011 and investors seek higher-yielding assets.”
“FINANCIAL markets expert Miles Sampa has said converting some of Zambia’s foreign exchange (FOREX) reserves into gold will be financially viable, but warned government to exercise caution since the country lacks the capacity to engage in risks related with precious metals.”
“Due to less confidence in the US dollar which has tremendously fallen in value owing to the global economic and financial crisis, many governments have embarked on serious diversification of their countries’ FOREX reserves into various investment portfolios that include the purchase of gold.”
“Gold, little changed in New York and London today, may gain on speculation central banks and investors will continue to purchase bullion.
Futures reached an all-time high of $1,174 an ounce yesterday as the U.S. Dollar Index dropped the most in two weeks and Russia’s central bank said it bought more bullion last month.”
- 4) Most global banks are still unsafe, warns S&P (posted earlier by Davos)
“Every single bank in Japan, the US, Germany, Spain, and Italy included in S&P’s list of 45 global lenders fails the 8pc safety level under the agency’s risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio. Most fall woefully short.
The most vulnerable are Mizuho Financial (2.0), Citigroup (2.1), UBS (2.2), Sumitomo Mitsui (3.5), Mitsubishi (4.9), Allied Irish (5.0), DZ Deutsche Zentral (5.3), Danske Bank (5.4), BBVA (5.4), Bank of Ireland (6.2), Bank of America (5.8), Deutsche Bank (6.1), Caja de Ahorros Barcelona (6.2), and UniCredit (6.3).
While some banks may look healthy under normal Tier 1 and leverage targets, critics claim these measures can be highly misleading since they fail to discriminate between high-risk and low-risk uses of leverage.”
……..4A) Only half of banks’ losses have been revealed, CBI summit told
“Global banks have so far only revealed half their losses from the financial crisis, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, head of the International Monetary Fund, told today’s annual CBI conference in London.
“It is our view we are still in the situation where a lot of losses haven’t been disclosed, Strauss-Kahn said. “How much is a difficult assessment, but let’s say something which is close to half of it.”"
……..4B) There could be $1.5 trillion in bad debt remaining on their balance sheets, and losses on these bad loans still threaten the solvency of many institutions.
(Note: Not posted here to reflect a political opinion)
“The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s purchase of agency mortgage-backed securities topped $1 trillion after it bought another $16 billion of the securities in the week ended Nov. 18. In the latest transaction, the Fed acquired $6.77 billion from Ginnie Mae, $5.9 billion from Freddie Mac and $4.55 billion from Fannie Mae. Overall, most of the Fed’s total net purchases (58%) were from Fannie Mae, followed by Freddie Mac (33%) and Ginnie Mae (9%).”
“LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Growing world oil use will likely outpace the rate of new supplies in 2010, eroding the huge stockpiles of crude which have mounted around the world since the start of the global economic crisis.
According to a Reuters poll of ten top oil-tracking analysts and organizations, oil demand is predicted to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) next year to 85.9 million bpd.”
(Look at Sutter County’s pension debt history as it went from a $28.8 million surplus in 2001 to today’s $52 million deficit)
“CalPERS has taken a $4.2 billion hit on its real estate portfolio in the second quarter of 2009, IPE reports. The real estate portfolio was structured more aggressively than the benchmark and mainly targeted housing, land purchase, development and leverage.”
“Reportedly in the crowd were some of the very people whose job is to keep traffic moving. ABC7 heard that some parking control officers are taking part in the demonstration.”
“U.S. home prices fell 3.8 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the smallest decline since the first quarter of 2008, as a tax credit for first-time homebuyers boosted demand and slowed foreclosure-driven price drops.”
“Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) — U.S. “problem” lenders climbed to the most in 16 years, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s fund protecting customers against bank failures slipped into a deficit in the third quarter, the agency said.
The FDIC had 552 banks with $345.9 billion in assets on the confidential problem list as of Sept. 30, a 32.7 percent increase from 416 lenders with $299.8 billion in assets at the end of the second quarter, the regulator said today. The agency’s insurance fund had a negative $8.2 billion balance.”
“Maryland’s chief tax collector reported that the number of millionaires in the state plunged 30 percent last year to the lowest level in four years and that some wealthy residents might have moved.
The analysis from the comptroller’s office is expected to stoke a debate over the General Assembly’s decision to raise an income tax rate for millionaires, a budget-balancing move it enacted in 2008.”
“The bottle and aluminum can recycling program, which recycled 16 billion bottles and cans in 2008, may lose up to $9 million in 2009.”
“Part of the problem stems from the fact that the Legislature, which is controlled by Democrats, and Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger cannot come to an agreement on a plan to save the program. Another factor contributing to the recycling program’s financial woes is the fact that many more people submitted eligible beverage containers for redemption. With the national financial crisis, more people were redeeming cans for much-needed extra money.”
“In the face of multimillion-dollar budget shortfalls, the superintendent of the giant Los Angeles Unified School District ordered spending cuts and froze hiring for some positions on Monday.
Superintendent Ramon Cortines said the nation’s second-largest school district faces a deficit of $50 million to $60 million this school year and an estimated $480 million deficit next school year.”
- 16) Almost One in Four Mortgaged U.S. Homeowners Are ‘Underwater’ (Bloomberg)
“The number of U.S. homes worth less than the debt owed on them reached almost 10.7 million, or 23 percent of all mortgaged properties, at the end of the third quarter, according to a report from First American CoreLogic.
An additional 2.3 million mortgages are approaching “negative equity” as loan defaults mount nationwide, the Santa Ana, California-based real estate research company said today.”
“Signs of “aggressive lending” are reemerging in high-yield, high-risk bonds, as U.S. corporate debt sales surpassed an annual record of $1.171 trillion, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.”
“Debt issuance has soared this year as borrowers have taken advantage of low interest rates and investors demand higher- yielding assets. Companies have sold $140.4 billion of junk bonds in the U.S. in 2009 compared with $64.3 billion for all of 2008, according to Bloomberg data.”
“NEW YORK — Mortgage finance company Freddie Mac on Monday put its initial loss estimate related to the bankruptcy of Taylor, Bean & Whitaker Mortgage Corp. at $500 million, and noted the figure could be much higher.”
- 19) Shadow Inventory
“Home resales surged 10.1% in October–hitting the highest pace since February 2007–fueled by buyers rushing to tap the federal tax credit. It helped that home prices and mortgage rates remain low, possibly making the monthly mortgage payment more affordable than renting in some areas.
That has eaten into the number of homes available for sale. At the end of October, total inventory fell 3.7% to 3.57 million homes, representing a seven-month supply for the first time in more than two years, the National Association of Realtors reports today. That makes unsold inventory–nearly 15% below a year ago–just a tick above the six-month mark that typically represents a healthy market.”
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“There’s also the so-called shadow inventory of foreclosed homes sitting on the sidelines. That has Credit Suisse analyst Dan Oppenheim cautious: “We believe the data fail to capture significant levels of foreclosures not currently listed for sale by banks.” One estimate puts it at seven million, a number only expected to rise as the foreclosure crisis plays out.”
“Following a 54 basis point (bp) increase in Fitch’s U.S. CMBS Loan Delinquency Index to 3.86, the balance of specially serviced loans in Fitch rated transactions increased to $35 billion in September (from $32.6 billion in August).”
“Values of commercial real estate will continue to fall before a slight rebound and a gradual recovery, according to a new report from Moody’s Investor Service.
Commercial property values fell 42.9% from their peak in October 2007 and will remain stunted far longer than cash flows, according to the report. Analysts further predict that values will decline 45% to 55% from that peak in months ahead.”
“In fact, fully 93 percent say they’ll spend less or about the same as last year, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll.”
- Saxplayer00o1
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