Important News - Nov. 30
By Daniel at 30 November, 2009, 1:41 pm
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Danger: Dubai crisis could trigger new global panic!!!
“Bank stocks are particularly vulnerable to a market turndown triggered by the Dubai crisis, said Peter Sorrentino, senior portfolio manager at Huntington Asset Advisors. He said the run-up this year has led to an overvalued stock market.”
“We had been looking for something to trigger a correction,” he said. “This could be that catalyst.”
- 1) Dubai Crisis Gives China Chance to Buy Oil, Gold: Report (ABC News)
“BEIJING (Reuters) - Dubai’s debt crisis could be China’s opportunity to snap up gold and oil assets, a senior Chinese official said in remarks published on Monday.”
“While the impact of the Dubai crisis on the global economy and on China was not known yet, it would last a while at the very least, Ji Xiaonan, who chairs the supervisory board for big state-owned companies under the State Council’s state assets commission, told the Economic Information Daily.
“That could give China a buying opportunity to put some forex reserves into gold or oil reserves,” Ji was quoted as saying by the paper, which is widely read by Chinese officials.”
“”We suggested that China’s gold reserves should reach 6,000 tons in the next 3-5 years and perhaps 10,000 tons in 8-10 years,” the paper quoted him as saying.
That is in line with many officials’ view that China should decrease the proportion of its $2 trillion foreign exchange reserves held in dollar-linked investments and raise its gold holdings to diversify its portfolio.”
………..1A) China Should Boost Gold Reserve Holdings, Youth Daily Reports (Bloomberg)
“Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) — China should increase the amount of gold it holds in reserves to reduce potential losses from a depreciating dollar, the China Youth Daily said today, citing Ji Xiaonan, head of the supervisory committee at the state-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission.
“We recommend China increase its gold reserves to 6,000 metric tons within three-to-five years and possibly to 10,000 tons in eight to 10 years,” the paper quoted Ji as saying. China increased its gold reserves by 76 percent to 1,054 tons since 2003, the official Xinhua News Agency reported in April.”
- 2) Chinese banks increase overseas loan activity (Chinadaily)
“‘Over-allocated’
Offering credit to companies outside China is also a way for the nation to invest its $2.27 trillion of reserves without buying treasuries.
China’s holdings of US government debt swelled to $798.9 billion in September, up from less than $100 billion in 2002, according to the US Treasury Department.
China, the biggest lender to the United States, is “shouldering its responsibilities” to restore stable global growth, Premier Wen Jiabao said on Nov 12.
“Chinese banks have an incentive to lend offshore,” said Viktor Hjort, a Hong Kong-based credit strategist for Morgan Stanley, an adviser on global takeovers. “China is sitting on large dollar reserves over-allocated to US Treasuries that it wants to reduce.”"
“Advisers told Summers, others not to put so much cash in market; losses hit $1.8b”
“It’s one of those numbers that’s so unbelievable you have to actually think about it for a while.
Within the next 12 months, the U.S. Treasury will have to refinance $2 trillion in short-term debt. And that’s not counting any additional deficit spending, which is estimated to be around $1.5 trillion.
Put the two numbers together. Then ask yourself, how in the world can the Treasury borrow $3.5 trillion in only one year? That’s an amount equal to nearly 30% of our entire GDP. And we’re the world’s biggest economy. Where will the money come from?”
“The need for pension reform has become apparent as CalPERS, the state’s pension trust fund that is used by many local governments, lost about $58 billion in the fiscal year that ended June 30.
That cost, the so-called pension “spike,” is expected to hit government budgets in 2012 and causing Long Beach’s budget deficit to reach $21.7 million that year.
Long Beach’s general fund pension cost has increased from $5.8million in 2003 to $48million this year. Citywide, including departments such as Harbor, pensions cost Long Beach $80 million.”
“As part of the federal stimulus package, Congress authorized $25 billion to provide subsidies for about 7 million laid-off workers so they can remain on health plans provided by their employers under the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act, better known as COBRA.
Under the program, laid-off workers pay 35 percent of premiums and the government reimburses employers for the remaining 65 percent.
When workers leave their jobs, they typically shoulder the entire cost of premiums themselves, an often expensive proposition for folks trying to subsist on unemployment checks.
On average, the typical family pays $1,069 a month to continue employer-sponsored health coverage, according to Families USA, a health advocacy group based in Washington, D.C.
COBRA subsidies last nine months, and that time runs out at the end of the month – Monday – for the program’s first enrollees, if congressional action is not taken.”
“Paterson has warned that New York is going broke, struggling under a projected $3.2 billion deficit. The state has now resorted to “juggling” its bills, Paterson said, and is moving money around to cover costs in the absence of a deal with the Legislature.
“We are out of time,” Paterson said yesterday. “This is a fiscal emergency.” ”
“For small retailers, the financial pressure from weak sales and higher unemployment taxes could be intense, Miller said. “You’ve got to have someone in the store, and if you’re down to one person in the store, you can’t cut any more.”
In addition to boosting unemployment taxes on employers, Virginia will have to borrow more than $1.26 billion from the federal government in coming years to continue paying jobless benefits, the VEC said in its forecast.
That’s because the deficit in its unemployment-benefits fund will hit $194 million by the end of this year and balloon to $561 million by the end of 2010, the VEC said.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Economy.com, estimates that state and local governments are likely to face a combined shortfall of $150 billion in fiscal year 2011, which begins next summer.
“The hole is turning out to be larger than we thought and deeper,” Zandi said at a conference held by the liberal Economic Policy Institute last week.
And it could cause the loss of up to 900,000 jobs in 2010 alone, according to another liberal think tank, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
“Washington — The government’s pension insurer said Monday it will assume responsibility for the underfunded pension plan of a bankrupt Northville auto supplier — at least the fifth supplier to abandon its pension obligations this year.
The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation said it will seize the pension plans covering 4,780 workers and retirees of Hayes Lemmerz International Inc., the Michigan-based wheel manufacturer — a move that will add nearly $100 million to the PBGC’s growing deficit.”
“Initial notices of default on condo mortgages are up more than threefold over the last four years — a trend that foreshadows more pressure on local housing prices.
The fresh wave of local price declines is likely to be steep and long lasting, a range of experts told The Post. PropertyShark CEO Bill Staniford forecasts housing prices will plummet another 10 percent-to-15 percent in the next six months — deepening the already steep 25 percent slump from the top of the market.
“It seemed as though the market was starting to come back, but . . . it certainly looks in New York City like another wave of distress is coming,” said Staniford, adding, “This wave is worse than the first, which happened over a year ago.”"
Reporting from Washington - Go ahead. Break the chains. Stop paying on your mortgage if you owe more than the house is worth. And most important: Don’t feel guilty about it. Don’t think you’re doing something morally wrong.
That’s the incendiary core message of a new academic paper by Brent T. White, a University of Arizona law school professor, titled “Underwater and Not Walking Away: Shame, Fear and the Social Management of the Housing Crisis.”
- 13) The Fed doesn’t want banks to increase lending (Benjamin J.)
Tim Duy - Director of Undergraduate Studies of the Department of Economics at the University of Oregon and the Director of the Oregon Economic Forum - noticed an amazing sentence in the minutes of the most recent meeting of the Fed Open Market Committee: ‘… participants noted that banks might seek to reduce appreciably their excess reserves as the economy improves by purchasing securities or by easing credit standards and expanding their lending substantially.
Banks are projected to lose $430 billion on commercial real estate loans in the next two to three years said Stan Mullin, an associate with California Real Estate Receiverships. Of the $3 trillion of outstanding mortgage debt, $1.4 trillion is scheduled to mature in 4 years, and another $500 billion to $750 billion of unscheduled maturities (i.e., defaults)
Part of what got us here was overspending, fostered by a shopping culture that uses cheap goods to hook people on feeling like they’re winning at something. As a country, we held nearly $1 trillion in credit-card debt this time last year—about the same as the value of all the goods and services produced in South Korea annually.
Banks have been urged to prepare their debt collection departments for the busiest New Year on record in anticipation of a spike in problem loans after Christmas.
That debt will never be paid. We will never agree to tax ourselves enough to pay for our own government services - never mind paying the Chinese government. They know they will never collect on that debt. It’s not about the money. It’s far more strategic than that.
It’s about destroying our ability to produce goods. It’s the same philosophy Microsoft used to destroy its competitors in the early years. Give away the product while building an infrastructure that can never be challenged by a startup. It doesn’t matter how much gold we have. If we have no steel mills - we’re screwed.
- saxplayer00o1
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