Iran might pound Persian Gulf cities with ballistic missiles and use swift boats to attack American war ships in an attempt to dissuade a U.S. attack on its nuclear arms sites, a new report states.
[Iran Flexes Military Muscle in Persian Gulf.]
Tehran likely would employ a mixed game plan against the U.S. military consisting of “advanced technology” and “guerilla tactics,” according to a research organization with close ties to the Pentagon.
Before that, Iran would first lean hard on weaker Middle Eastern nations to convince those states to deny Washington access to bases on their soil, it states.
Some of the report’s grimmer scenarios predict Iranian ballistic missile launches on Gulf cities in an attempt to convince other nations to resist providing support to an American military operation.
The report also forecasts efforts by Tehran to use Shiite Muslim “proxy groups” to attack U.S. allies in the region. Similar groups plagued the U.S.-led war effort in Iraq for years, and some officials and experts said some acted with Tehran’s backing. [Cantor Presses for More Pressure on Iran.]
Anthony Cordesman, a Pentagon adviser, acknowledged Iranian officials might give some kind of support to extremist groups in a place like Yemen.
But he cast doubt on the likelihood that Iran would fire missiles at Gulf cities, or if its missiles would even work. [How Iran Could Affect Your Wallet in 2012.]
“Iran is much more likely to look at this and realize when you see this type of exchange, you ignore the fact that there are no rules as to how the U.S. and others would respond,” said Cordesman, a senior analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
An Iranian missile barrage on Gulf population centers, he said, could lead the United States and its allies to “take out their oil refineries.”
“Then, their economy grinds to a halt,” Cordesman said. “If Iran can’t export [oil], it can’t earn. And that creates critical problems for the regime.”
“Every time they escalate, they open themselves to attack on their own refineries, their own missile systems, and their navy and air force,” Cordesman said.
Iran also could use new weapons, like advanced ballistic missiles, to attack U.S. bases and other forces positioned around the Persian Gulf, wrote Mark Gunzinger, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington, in the report.
