Is A Recession Looming? Low Unemployment And Declining Treasury Curve Occur Just Before Recessions (And Lousy Wage Growth)



by Anthony B Sanders

US Real GDP is growing at 2.3% YoY.  What’s not to like?

How about the lowest unemployment rate since 2000 and the worst wage “recovery” in modern times? AND a flattening Treasury yield curve?

Yes, we are once more staring into the abyss of a recession where unemployment rates are low (as they seemingly always are just prior to the end of a business cycle). Throw in a skidding Treasury curve and … this is it?

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As we are painfully aware,  wage growth is the worst it has been in modern times after The Great Recession. Despite the staggering printing of money by The Fed (and ultra-low interest rates).

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Of course, The Fed is raising rates cautiously and unwinding their balance sheet very slowly in order not to disrupt markets (and pop the numerous asset bubbles).

Let’s just hope that the incoming Fed Chair (Powell) doesn’t say “Do you like Huey Lewis and the News?

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