James Rickards: Gold Will Start Heading Higher On “Dwindling” Supply
James Rickards via Daily Reckoning
Gold was down after the Fed’s hike, but I expect it to start heading higher again. Too many powerful forces are driving it behind the scenes. Dwindling physical supply is a major one.
Gold in USD (5 Years)
On a recent visit to Switzerland, I was informed that secure logistics operators could not build new vaults fast enough and were taking over nuclear-bomb proof mountain bunkers from the Swiss Army to handle the demand for private storage.
Geopolitical fear is another. The crises in North Korea, Syria, Iran, the South China Sea, and Venezuela are not getting better. The headlines may fade in any given week, but geopolitical shocks will return when least expected and send gold soaring in a flight to safety.
Fed policy tightening is normally a headwind for gold. But, the last two times the Fed raised rates — December 14, 2016 and March 15, 2017 — gold rallied as if on cue.
Gold is the most forward-looking of any major market. It may be the case that the gold market sees the Fed is tightening into weakness and will eventually over-tighten and cause a recession.
At that point, the Fed will pivot back to easing through forward guidance. That will result in more inflation and a weaker dollar, which is the perfect environment for gold.
In short, all signs point to higher gold prices in the months ahead based on Fed ease, geopolitical tensions, and a weaker dollar.
The Fed’s Road Ahead is James Rickards latest piece for the Daily Reckoning. This is an excerpt & the full article can be read here
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