June numbers will be worse than May, especially after the ADP report this morning.
By Daniel at 1 July, 2009, 4:30 pm
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What is clear, especially from auto sales, is that this economy is no where near recovery mode. Sales are down in the high 20% range and that was from a bad June last year. Clearly with auto’s in the sub 10M units range for the year we can pretty much write-off 2009.
As to the 2M jobs, well the stimulus is just starting and most of it that is hitting this year is being used to plug state deficits for the current fiscal year. So I think there won’t be any actual jobs created, but overall, a $780B stimulus should generate about 7.8 million man years of work, so over a 2 year span, about 4 million fewer job losses than we would have had otherwise.
This just goes to show you how bad this downturn could end up being if we don’ come out of it by 2011 (the second leg of the W due to the massive tax increase scheduled for january 2011). I would guess about 3% of the unemployment rate will have been saved over the next 2 years, so instead of 15% unemployment, we are likely to see roughly a peak of 12%.
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