Late Sunday, GFS rapidly develops a Clipper system into a strong Nor’Easter, 1001 mb to 967 mb in 18-hours
Strong winds along E. coast w/cold front tied to “bombing” low, 970 to 959 mb from 12z-18z, GFS then takes to 940 mb
Definition of GFS
GFS model stands for the Global Forecast System model…the newest model version of what used to be called the AVN/MRF model (AVN=aviation, MRF= medium range forecast model). The GFS is a global spectral model and predicts for the many regions of the world. It’s a relatively coarse model, not as fine a resolution as the NAM described below. Another subset of the model, the GFSX (X for extended) also predicts over longer ranges, as much as 144 hours to 384 hours into the future. It’s run 4 times a day. While not as ‘fine’ a resolution as the NAM model, the GFS model has wonderful features and is the one I usually bet on.
This type of storm has characteristics similar to a hurricane. More specifically it describes a low-pressure area whose center of rotation is just off the East Coast and whose leading winds in the left-forward quadrant rotate onto land from the northeast. The precipitation pattern is similar to that of other extratropical storms. Nor’easters can cause severe coastal flooding, coastal erosion, hurricane force winds or blizzard conditions; these conditions are usually accompanied with very heavy snow or rain, depending on when the storm occurs. Nor’easters can be devastating and damaging, especially in the winter months, when most damage and deaths are cold-related, as nor’easters are known for bringing extremely cold air down from the Arctic air mass. Nor’easters thrive on the converging air masses; that is, the polar cold air mass and the warmer oceanic air over the Gulf Stream.