LEAP/E2020 – Global systemic crisis – Autumn 2012 – Welcome to the weeks of the big swing / Geopolitics, trigger of a big new global shock
In terms of a schedule, LEAP/E2020 estimates that from now the timing is very clear:
. by the end of November 2012, the United States and China are each entering a double phase of historical domestic socio-political tensions before having to come to terms with the end of the period of “peaceful economic and commercial coexistence” of these last decades
. by December 2012, Euroland exits, jogging along, as it usually does, from the “Euro crisis” and finds itself facing the triple challenge of its economic revival against the background of a global crisis, its institutional structuring against a background of imperative democratization (16) and, coupled with that, the long term settlement of the British problem (in fact 26 versus 1) (17).
United States, « recovery » or smokescreen?
And like all tricks, once understood, they reveal a much worse reality than one imagined… opening the door to panic! Remember Lehman Brothers… in a few hours the world moved from “normal” to “Red Alert” mode!
Notes:(1) Sources: New York Times, 25/09/2012; La Tribune, 01/10/2012(2) Sign of a growing confusion in the alliances used by the West; in Syria, Saudi Arabia and Qatar is in the front line of the “pro-Western” forces in war against the Assad regime; North of the Sahel, on the contrary they arm the rebels who will face the soldiers of the African forces supported by NATO. The wide geostrategic variations of this type are not long-lasting… except to think that Saudi petrodollars can indefinitely “keep Washington”, as Qatar is trying to do with France and as Kuwait and Dubai has already done with the United Kingdom. Source: France 24, 29/09/2012(3) And these “tepid” conflicts have already had quite tangible and painful consequences: wounded at the time of the anti-Japanese riots, collapse of certain major economic activities between two of the principal world economic and commercial powers (China and Japan) especially as regards the automotive industry, tourism, electronics, public construction,…. the bill is big and lasting… and hasn’t yet impacted the statistics.(4) Sources: CNBC, 27/09/2012; Mish’s, 27/09/2012
(5) Even the Fed board members now admit that they don’t really understand the US economic situation. Source: Les Echos, 20/09/2012
(6) Source: The Hill, 28/09/2012
(7) Source: Deutsche Welle, 20/09/2012
(8) Source: New York Times, 24/09/2012
(9) Tokyo is increasingly wondering what is the “real added value” of 10/20 years of complete alignment with Washington. Ten/twenty years are the minimum deadlines to reflect on and implement any major modification to this kind of historical partnership…. and imposing difficult decisions in the very short-term. It’s not surprising that Japanese nationalists are adding some to the current conflicts over the islands! Source: Le Monde, 26/09/2012; Caixin, 24/09/2012
(10) Source: Deutsche Welle, 04/10/2012
(11) The Dollar is in the process of losing its oil currency status for China, to the benefit of the Yuan Source: The Examiner, 12/09/2012
(13) Source: CNBC, 04/10/2012
(15) As we had anticipated and contrary to the prevailing discussions on the end of the Euro, the exit of Greece… and other madness which proves, if it were still needed, that the economists and other experts of this craft, should really develop their multidisciplinary knowledge in particular in politics, geopolitics, forecasting and the working of networks and complex systems. They could also usefully stop “barking” for more or less concealed financial economic interests. It’s not only in the sphere of health and drug testing that conflicts of interests are frequent. Last remark on this subject: to continue to give the Nobel Prize for economics to American specialists, as has just been done again, is frankly proof that the whole discipline is blind. The current crisis marks the complete failure of prevailing economic thinking since 1945 and nevertheless one continues to validate the work from universities and experts who have not stopped being wrong for over 60 years. Can one imagine such a situation in physics, in chemistry,…? Rewarding scientists who never produce results? That illustrates at what point it’s really a Nobel Prize for ideology like that for peace (Obama, EU,…).
(18) Source: AOL real estate, 13/07/2012
(19) One of the big real estate websites and which allows one to choose only repossession adverts and, therefore, know the number.
(20) 88,200 repossessions out of 157,500 adverts.