Halfway through the third-quarter earnings season, one thing is becoming clear: the fourth quarter is likely to be gloomy.
Right now analysts have so many variables going on, they have to run more scenarios than is practicable. The problem with that practice is that the longer analysts wait, the more pronounced an effect it’ll have on markets when they do cut estimates.
“I’m just hoping it will not be a massive one across the board,” Silverblatt said. “That can come somewhat as a shock.”
As of Tuesday midday, among S&P 500 companies, 35 out of 39 firms, or 90%, that gave forecasts have provided an earnings outlook that guides below the Wall Street consensus, according to John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet. That’s even worse than the 78% negative forecast rate going into third-quarter earnings season, which was the lowest recorded by FactSet since it began tracking the data in 2006.
Similarly, among S&P 500 companies, 25 out of 28, or 89%, have said fourth-quarter revenue will come in below consensus.
Most notably, the tech and industrial sectors are calling for a rough fourth quarter.
Core Capital Goods Orders Fall to Recessionary Pace: BBG’s TJ Marta
Downward momentum in core capital goods orders despite Aug. rebound highlights negative risks for economy from EU debt crisis, U.S. fiscal …
— TJ Marta (@TJMarta) October 4, 2012
Dow Chemical Co said it would cut 2,400 jobs, about 5% of its staff, and close 20 manufacturing facilities in a bid to save US$500mil a year in operating costs. The company said it would also cut back capital spending and investments to save another US$500mil on top of that.
G.Soros Unloads All Investments in Major Financial Stocks; Invests Over $130 Million In Gold. Preparing For Something BIG?
In a harbinger of what may be coming our way in the Fall of 2012, billionaire financier George Soros has sold all of his equity positions in major financial stocks according to a 13-F report filed with the SEC for the quarter ending June 30, 2012.
Soros, who manages funds through various accounts in the US and the Cayman Islands, has reportedly unloaded over one million shares of stock in financial companies and banks that include Citigroup (420,000 shares), JP Morgan (701,400 shares) and Goldman Sachs (120,000 shares). The total value of the stock sales amounts to nearly $50 million.
What’s equally as interesting as his sale of major financials is where Soros has shifted his money. At the same time he was selling bank stocks, he was acquiring some 884,000 shares (approx. $130 million) of Gold via the SPDR Gold Trust.
When a major global player with direct ties to the White House, Wall Street, and the banking system starts off-loading stocks and starts stacking gold, it suggests a very serious market move is set to happen.
While often lambasted for his calls to centralize global banking, increase government intervention in the economy and his support of what he has called an “emergence of the new world order,” if there’s anyone with an inside track of where things are headed next it’s Soros.