To see the version with graphic’s & charts go to the ORIGINAL SOURCE @ the bottom of this page.
Copyright April 6th, 2011
By: Martin A. Armstrong Former Chairman of Princeton Economics International, Ltd. – Copyright April 6th, 2011 all rights reserved.
It has been a hard battle just to write. We tend to think that we live in a country that is free and we have all these rights. Nothing could be further from the truth. For you see, they turned the constitution upside down. Instead of you having rights, you have to prove they exist. The government does whatever it damn well pleases whenever. It is your burden to prove you have any rights at all and whatever action they then claim violates the constitution. This is why THEY appoint the judges for they hold the keys to everything.
Perhaps lost in the maze of information was the shocking public announcement of the retirement of CFTC Judge George Painter last September 2010. He confirmed what everybody behind that curtain really
knows is going on – it’s always them against the people. He wrote:
“There are two administrative law judges at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission: myself and the Honorable Bruce Levine. On Judge Levine’s first week on the job, nearly twenty years ago, he came into my office and stated that he had promised Wendy Gramm, then Chairwoman of the Commission, that he would never rule in a complainant’s favor. A review of his rulings will confirm that he has fulfilled his vow. Judge Levine, in the cynical guise of enforcing the rules, forces pro se complainants to run a hostile procedural gauntlet until they lose hope, and either withdraw their complaint or settle for a pittance, regardless of the merits of the case. See Michael Schroeder, If You ’ve Got a Beef With a Futures Broker, This Judge Isn ’t for You — In Eight Years at the CF TC, Levine Has Never Ruled in Favor of an Investor, Wall St. J ., Dec. 13, 2000.”
This is why we are in such trouble. Everything is about keeping the game going – not about making society better. Take the current budget battle. The Republicans demand NPR is no longer funded. This isn’t evenatenthofatenthofa tenth of a penny in the scheme of things. It is political because they do not, and have never once, respected any independent reporting. This is no different than any other government trying to silence truth. The so called private press is always at the pleasure of government. Look at PayPal, Visa and MasterCard all stopped sending money to WikiLeaks. Who picked up the phone and told them to do that?
This is why everything is collapsing. There is just no hope because everyone just wants to keep that power. It
is never about making things better or saving the future. It is as if they are raised by dogs. Oh there are always exceptions. There are few who are independent. John Adler just died. He lost the election last time because he was a Democrat. But he truly lost because he was independent voting against the Party agenda, so what happened was the Democrats didn’t like him and wouldn’t support him. So he lost to the Republican. Adler would not play the game. He always responded to my family when others would not.
Patrick Henry (1736-1799)
This is the very essence of what Patrick Henry Meant when he said “Give me Liberty or give me Death!” Life is just not worth living if we have to live like slaves.
Where in the film MATRIX the machines harness mankind for energy and create a fake world within which they live, we are not much better. We live to support the state and instead of energy, we produce income for them to survive. Yet this is what is breaking apart.
Plenty of people have written for years about how it will all collapse and social security will turn to dust when the baby-boomers retire. However, there is another side to this that is perhaps not being closely followed. What is the mechanism that will cause the rapid collapse? The crisis is powered by the exponential rise in the cost of government. For the same demographics apply there as well. There is a mad dash among federal government employees to now retire. As that takes place, they must hire people to replace them. Yes there is the Obama hiring freeze. But there are plenty of exceptions to that. So what is taking place also at the state and local levels is that now they must pay for the retiring worker and the new replacement. But there is no REAL money tucked away for the retirement
plans promised all these years. So the outlays are going to rise exponentially over the next 4.3 years.
New Jersey is such a mess that there is talk now about extending the income tax down to the municipal level. There is just no respect for the people whatsoever. Accountants already are warning people NOT to retire in New Jersey for they will tax your benefits unbelievably. There is a massive migration beginning to unfold all over taxation.
This further helps to keep a cap on real estate and there will be an ongoing shift in the supply. Prices will rebound to some degree in selected areas due to inflation, but we will not see the lofty levels of yesterday.
Being away for as long as I have been, seeing prices of just everyday things has been a shock. This has impacted me perhaps more than most, because it is like watching yourself in the mirror every day. You do not see the slow gradual changes. Pull out an old photograph from a decade or more and you are confronted with the changes in time and circumstance. I see the changes more so than others
because it is like a culture shock. Everything appears to be at least double. So thank God there was no real inflation or else prices would be 10 times higher than the past decade. This has been a real shock living such a sheltered life.
We are also on the verge of a rising famine. The weather is turning ever more volatile with extremely cold winters and very hot summers. If we get another real hot one this year, we may be on the road to creating a 7 year weather cycle that will burn up crops and keep food prices rising. This is part of the driving force behind the Islamic Revolution in the Middle East – the rising cost of food.
There is no way to prevent the collapse of society. We cannot fix it without political change, and that is not about to happen just yet. This is the
spirit that lies within the Sovereign Debt Crisis and it is now coming very much unglued. It is time for change on a worldwide scale and these things have always taken place throughout history. The key is not how high the Dow Jones will rise or gold, but what will the future really hold when we have to deal with reality?
The collapse DOES NOT appear to be just yet. Back in 1985 at our Economic Conference, I stood up showing projections of volatility out into 2032 for the duration of this 51.6 year Private Wave. It appeared back then that the sovereign debt crises would begin to appear after the 2007.15 wave going into 2011.45. That appears to have been a correct projection that the computer made. Its target for the actual collapse appeared to begin with the peak of the next wave 2015.75. It appears that the worst may be yet on the horizon between 2015.75 and 2020.05 (January).
What we must understand is that projecting the future by any individual has its hits and misses. The difference between INSTITUTIONAL advising and RETAIL, boils
down to expectation. Among the INSTITUTIONAL crowd, I was not a demigod. Clients respected it was the computer that projected the future without the messy biases and shortcomings of personal foresight. Among the retail crowd, advisors tried to pound their chests and pretend they were better than everyone else and only their method was correct. Real money knows the latter tends to be snake- oil salesmen.
God does not speak to me during the day, or in my dreams. What I have learned is by actual experience and what at times can be seen decades into the future, is based upon computer correlations of the past. What I have written up to now has been purely from experience, flying blind with- out being able to see a screen with oscillators or any other instantaneous tool. So the difference with INSTITU- TIONAL advisory work, you draw the line where you are right and where you are wrong. That is what the REAL money expects, not the yelling, screaming, or chest pounding. Markets are so dynamic and complex it is beyond consistent personal foresight.
Ascertaining the future in a given market on a fractal basis with each and every increment of time was just the first step. There were over 35 different models with submodels bringing the total to more than 70 different models and all had to be run separately. Then each was run in terms of every currency important within capital flows. This
would all be correlated and then mapped out in each market. What you see just in these Forecast Arrays is the height of each bar represents a separate model calculation that targets that time period. The amount of money to construct this computer model today from scratch would no doubt exceed $1 billion.
Here is the US 30 Year bonds expressed in Japanese yen.
The computer would forecast each and every market in each and every currency and correlate the entire world. The finished product was the most reliable forecast possible, and this is what the BIG money paid for – not chest pounding and snake oil showmanship.
Everything was thrown into the one giant pot from timing, pattern, and technical analysis, to stocastics, RSI, momentum and just about anything else you can think of. This is what they wanted silenced because it took away the manipulator’s edge.
What is offered here is a Forecast Array generated by the computer on a Yearly Level and that provided a projection from 1996 outward for 12 years. This Array provides a look at the Dow Jones Industrials as it then appeared. The largest number of independent models was pointing to 2000 followed by 2003 and then 2007. The Volatility forecast called for a sharp increase beginning in 1997. That is when the Dow went exponential blasting through the 6,000 level reaching nearly double that by 2000.
The next Forecast Array is that of Crude Oil. Our forecast there is well known since it was covered by Bloomberg News and the Department of Energy requested that Princeton Economic Institute be
allowed to construct a model on Crude Oil for them given we were publicly projecting when Crude hit nearly $10 in December 1998, that it would then rally to $100 by 2007. The SEC, CFTC, O’Melveny & Meyers LLP, Judge Richard Owen, and Alan Cohen of Goldman Sachs ALL objected, and the request of the Department of Energy was denied and that is part of the court record of October 3rd, 2000. Why would the SEC & CFTC and the NY banks not want that forecast out or for Princeton Economics to aid the Department of Energy? Well that is anybody’s guess! But we can look at the Forecast Array that was published back then and see that 1999 was the big target with the next one coming up as 2007. While the high was 2008, the computer was only projecting out to 2007 at that time and 2007 remained the highest year-end closing.
The gold Forecasting Array shows how the computer was projecting the 1998/1999 low (98=closing low/99=intraday low). These are not personal subjective calls that justify chest pounding. This is the cold unbiased and unemotional projections of the model. This is what they wanted silenced. The government listened to the NY boys and called this “manipulating the world economy” simply because it can project out decades into the future. It did not matter if they killed me. Shutting me up did not prevent the forecasts from taking place. When 2007 hit, they were calling it “Armstrong’s Revenge.” Trying to learn from the accumulative knowledge of all generations that went before us is something the manipulators are not interested in at all. They want to keep the public, government, and the press barefoot, stupid, and pregnant with false information.
We then introduced the Market Watch that our institutional clients loved. The computer would provide a 5 page overview of each market around the world and provide its status on demand at any time. For a big portfolio manager, this proved to be a lifesaver. At a glance, this would warn if a crash was possible on what level of time. Now the NY boys really hated our guts.
I am grateful for all the help of former clients who have been gathering publications from the decades past. They have taken on a project to bring together everything the government has sought to destroy. I would especially like to Erwin Pletch for his invaluable help in gathering research materials. His effort has been truly invaluable.
Trying to catch up to speed is not going to be easy. Just trying to write has been a battle. So far, there is nothing out of line just yet. There is no doubt that we are living in interesting times that is most likely a curse. And for those who may think this is some new forecast, in May 1995 we were warning that it was truly the Death of Socialism that we faced – the Sovereign Debt Crisis. We warned it should first appear 2007-2011, and that now seems to have been another correct projection by the computer.
For you see, it doesn’t take God to whisper warnings in your ear when you sleep. It’s truly a matter of just math and that 3 year old with a pocket calculator could have figured this one out. It may require our computer to provide the correct timing, but as far as the Sovereign Debt Crisis is concerned, anyone outside of government should have gotten that one correct. If they didn’t, well then they probably don’t know how to use a calculator.
The real tough forecast is NOT that the sky will fall. Nor will it even be WHEN! The real tough call is what comes AFTER the fall? Will this be a Bonfire of Humanity, or a stepping stone to a new era? “To be or not to be,” to quote Shakespeare.