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Models Showing Tropical Storm Hitting Between New Orleans and Tampa Next Week!


Barbara, the second named storm in the East Pacific this year, strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane just prior to making landfall on Wednesday afternoon near Tonalá in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Mexico. It is just now re-emerging over water, this time in the Gulf of Mexico.

As of 11 a.m. EDT, it has weakened to a tropical depression with winds of 30 mph. Could it redevelop and reach storm intensity once more?

Although it is poorly organized after a draining 15-hour trek over land, there is still a mid-level circulation and a few strong associated thunderstorms.

As for its future prospects, conditions in the Bay of Campeche are marginal for development.

Although water temperatures are plenty warm, upper-level winds are quite strong. Further north toward the central Gulf, the wind shear is outright hostile.

In the unlikely event that it does manage to reform, it would start over with Atlantic numbering and naming.

In other words, it would lose its Barbara heritage and become tropical depression 1 and then tropical storm Andrea.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/05/30/a-storm-with-two-names-will-barbara-morph-into-andrea/

The Gulf Of Mexico Will Really Need To Be Watched Closely For Tropical Development Next Week

The Gulf of Mexico will be the place to really watch next week for potential tropical development as pretty much all of this morning’s guidance points to a tropical storm developing next week and tracking somewhere between New Orleans and Tampa.

http://www.crownweather.com/?p=7367

12Z Euro showing NOLA landfall on June 9

http://imageshack.us/scaled/large/834/euro240.gif

GFS has it making a Bee Line to Tampa hitting the weekend of June 8/9

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/13053100/111.phase1.png

Latest CMC has it stationary in the middle of the GOM

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/13053100/132.phase1.png

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2013053100&field=850mb%20Vorticity&hour=Animation

Invest 90L is up

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2013&MO=05&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=90L.INVEST&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&SIZE=Thumb&STYLE=tables&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc13/ATL/02E.BARBARA/tpw/microvap&TYPE=ssmi

 

DB

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