Collapse is not an event. It is a process.
One of our favorite charts:
— $hane Obata (@sobata416) August 12, 2014
— Urban Carmel (@ukarlewitz) August 12, 2014
There is no way we can have economic prosperity in this country when the top 1% has all of the money. The middle class is basically being destroyed right in front of our very eyes. This graph was an eye opener for me (not that I should be surprised):
Look at the chart below, tracking household debt as a percentage of total compensation of employees, which I use as a proxy for earned income . In just the few years after 2000 it zoomed from 113% to 180%. That’s a serious challenge to solvency, no matter how low the Fed keeps rates.
The National Federation of Independent Businesses has come out with its latest survey of members, and across the board it’s clear: small businesses are not getting access to credit, they’re not living up to their rebound expectations, they’re not hiring, and they’re not upping CAPEX.
Compensation? Not so much.
U.S stock market 1930 = 2010? Is history repeating itself?
Dow Jones Industrial Average (1900 – Present Monthly)
How has OUR market done since 1970? Could it happen in 2010? I guess the second leg down will be very scary when it comes….
In real terms, our market has basically doubled since the early 1970s. True, that’s hardly worth writing home about. But as Japan illustrates, it could be a lot worse.
U.S. National Debt from 1940 to Present
As you can see from the chart below, stocks have gone through some serious secular bull and bear market–even as they have trended higher over the long run.
If you average all that trending out, you get average real price appreciation of about 2% per year (slightly less, actually).
Also note that we are currently ahead of that trend line. As the chart clearly shows, being ahead or behind the trend line doesn’t tell you anything about what stocks will do next. It does, however, suggests that future returns will be below average.
McKinsey: You Won’t Believe How Much Pain We’re Still In For
The job is difficult because excessive debt makes the economy inherently unstable.
If you are a small business owner, I feel sorry for you.
The bearish sentiment and VIX have bottomed.
PIMCO: The US Falls Into The Sovereign Debt Ring Of Fire
Besides The Fed, Nobody Is Buying Agency Debt:
Morgan Stanley: The 15 Must-See Charts That Explain The Global Economy
Are Sentiment Indicators Topping Out?
Earning Revisions Have Stated To Roll Over
European Sovereign Debt Remains A Concern
Valuation Dispersion Has Fallen From Its Peak
Euro Area Domestic Demand Remains Weak
Industrial Production And Manufacturing Fell Unexpectedly
…Which Raises Expectations Of Central Bank Tightening