My take on the Durable Goods report (irishscot2)

OK, I’ve read the report and this is what I see in it:

1. New orders are up 1% off of the order level LAST MONTH. New orders are DOWN 24.1% from September of 2008. Considering we were well RECESSIONARY in September of 2008, a decline of 24.1% CANNOT be seen as a positive economic indicator.

2. Shipments increased 0.8% off the level of LAST MONTH. Shipments are DOWN 18.5% from September of 2008. See note 1.

3. Unfilled orders, what we in sales would call order BACKLOG, is DOWN 0.4% from LAST MONTH and DOWN 11.1% from September 2008. This is the FUTURE potential shipments, thus showing a continued double digit demand drop off last year’s recessionary numbers. See note 1.

4. Inventories are DOWN 1.0% from last month, DOWN 10.3% from last September. As in note 3, this deals with future shipments, and correlates nicely. Shows good inventory management at least, but not economic improvement.

So, the numbers in new orders and shipments are meagerly improved from last month, but if you are looking for a position, this is not the engine of economic growth at this time.

Written by irishscot2

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