New Home Sales: Worst June on Record
Annualized New Home sales
If it wasn’t for a lack of context there would be no news.
Ignore all the month to previous month comparisons. May was revised down sharply and that makes the increase look significant. Here is the bottom line: this was the worst June for new home sales on record.
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 330 thousand. This is an increase from the record low of 267 thousand in May (revised from 300 thousand).
The first graph shows monthly new home sales (NSA – Not Seasonally Adjusted).
Note the Red columns for 2010. In June 2010, 30 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). This is a new record low for June.
The previous record low for the month of June was 34 thousand in 1982; the record high was 115 thousand in June 2005.
Sales of new single-family houses in June 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 330,000 … This is 23.6 percent (Ã‚Â±15.3%) above the revised May rate of 267,000, but is 16.7 percent (Ã‚Â±10.9%) below the June 2009 estimate of 396,000.
And another long term graph – this one for New Home Months of Supply.
A realistic take from Zerohedge:
“So June new home sales come in at 330,000 on expectations of 310,000: a decent beat by 20k or so, and a “record” increase from the May revised 267k. However, this “beat”, and massive 23.6% MoM surge only occurred due to prior downward (of course) revision which took away 57k from the past two months! The May number was revised down from 300k, or by 33k, to the lowest sales number on record of 267k. And April, not to be undone, two months after the initial release, has received its second downward adjustment, this time down by 24k from 446k to 422k. So let’s get this straight: this was the worst June on record, following the worst month on record in new home sales ever, the beat was completely drowned out by 57k worth of prior revisions, the average new home price slid another 1.4% to $213,400, yet just because the new home supply is down to “just” 7.6 month from 9.6 in May it is enough to push stocks to the moon (of course this completely ignores that existing homes sales are back to 9 months, and shadow inventory is more than double that. Who cares – machine language does not add, it only multiples). Another day, another insane day in stocks, which are now programmed to ignore reality, and just focus on the propaganda headline spin.”
They will ignore these reports too: