No question, we are in much worse shape than the US was in 1929.
By Daniel at 21 October, 2009, 9:26 am
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That depression lasted into the 1940’s, and for the most part, only ended because of our involvement in WWII. Wars are great for creating jobs.
This depression will also last for a very long time, certainly a decade, maybe longer, perhaps it will be permanent. That said, the rate of decline could be steep, other times shallow, maybe even some leveling off or minor short-lived gains. However, the overall trend will be down.
Like the previous depression in the 1930s, it will not effect everyone equally, or at the same time. Some will do well longer than others, a few will continue to prosper. It could collapse suddenly and catastrophically, but don’t count on it. As John Michael Greer noted, civilizations take a long time to collapse; typically hundreds of years, so we probably have some way to go before we completely close up shop.
Be careful about being sucked into either extremist camp. Apocalypse tomorrow is highly unlikely, so is a return to business as usual. Watch closely and keep an open mind, stay flexible.
We humans are strongly biased to hear only that which reinforces our existing world view. Search out other views and evaluate them critically. There will be some element of truth in both sides. The sides aren’t necessarily on equal footing, but those who take the time to sort things out may do better than those that blindly follow one extremist camp or the other.
Reality is often stranger than fiction, so expect the unexpected and hedge all of your bets. Keep in mind that even our most complex models are gross over simplifications, so as Dmitry Orlov suggests, “don’t plan accordingly.”
-Greg
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