Not being to bullish or bearish
By Daniel at 1 May, 2009, 7:42 am
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It seems like one good question is whether the newsletters and individuals think that this is a secular bear market or a cyclical bear market. Some still think that this is simply a correction. Go figure. Second, what do these investors (experts - self proclaimed or otherwise) think the macroeconomic fundamentals are now and for the future - 5-10 years. When someone like Charles Allmon says he’s buying - but thinks the Dow could fall to 3000 - this must be a bear rally.
Quite a bit of upside would have to be produced to erase the severe technical damage done to the market. 50%+ of the losses (10,330+) would have to be erased -if were using Fibonacci and wave analysis. Useful but Not the only thing I’d use.
Interesting that the VIX is still near “panic” levels. The highest level during the Internet Bubble Popping was low 40s.
Until the Debt load by this government, the structural problems of the economy, and the blatant fraud on Wall Street disappears - I’d say that this is yet another rally in a multi year Bear.
Many have predicted the plummeting of the Dow comeith as it has been said prior for “weeks“. But not in this environment. for an example, Employment numbers were bad however not as bad as expected. Profits were bad but once again not as bad as predicted. The economy is slowing, but at a slower pace.
And my personal fav, were spending zillions of $$$ BUT and here it comes, to stimuli more spending.
Were at the - could have been worse “optimistic” stage and nothing short of a meteor bouncing off our planet will curb the detriments.
Moving forward throughout the year profits will be a “surprise” and loses will be “already expected”… .
I always sell everything at some point during the day. Holding keeps me awake at nights especially the time like this.
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