Perfect Storm: U.S. Economic Growth Revised Sharply Downward, Short Interest Is Surging On S&P 500, Falling Renminbi Heightens Derivatives Risks, A War Over Crimea Imminent…
Revised Q4 GDP Tumbles 26% From Initial Estimate To 2.4%; Personal Consumption Hit
So much for that blow out initial estimate of Q4 GDP that had annualized GDP at 3.2%. One month later and the number has been cut by 25% to 2.4% following a substantial downward revision to Personal Consumption, which dropped from 3.3% to 2.6%, well below the 2.9% expected. As a percentage of the acual annualized GDP number, it dropped from 2.26% to 1.73%. The other components in the calculation that had material revisions were inventories which added just 0.14% to GDP vs 0.42% in the last revision and 1.67% in Q3, as the destocking from record high inventory build up levels continues to take a bite out of growth; offsetting this was an increase in the Fixed investment estimate from 0.14% to 0.58%. Which in turn means that even more CapEx growth was pulled back into last year than previously expected, suggesting further downward cuts to Q1 2014 GDP are coming. Finally, the government deducted -1.05% from Q4 GDP as opposed to the 0.93% estimated previously.
U.S. economic growth revised sharply downward
Short interest is surging on S&P 500 as it flirts with record
The S&P 500 index just nailed down its 47th record of the past year, and who in their right mind would bet against another new high at this point? You might be surprised, though you shouldn’t be. Short interest is surging at the prospects of a tired bull, even as the market seems fairly content to lay waste to new highs.
But that recent strength is a bit misleading. Only 6% of all S&P 500 stocks closed at or near their 52-week highs, showing that this breakout has been “relatively half-hearted,” according to Chris Weston of IG Markets.
China Currency Plunges Most In Over 5 Years, Biggest Weekly Loss Ever: Yuan Carry Traders Crushed
And just like that the Chinese yuan devaluation has shifted away from the merely “orderly.”
In the past few hours of trading, China, which as we reported two days ago has started intervening aggressively in the Yuan market (for the reasons why, read this), has seen its currency crash by nearly 0.9%, which may not seem like much, but is in fact the largest drop since December of 2008, and at last check was trading at around 6.18, even as the PBOC fixed the CNY reference rate 0.02% higher from the last official close to 6.1214, erasing pivot support point at 6.1346 and 6.1408. Naturally this means that the obverse, the CNYUSD, has crashed to as low as 0.1620. Should this move sustain without reverting, this will be the biggest weekly loss ever!
The dramatic monthly plunge from the CNY perspetive is shown on the chart below.
Falling renminbi heightens derivatives risks
Chinese companies will face billions of dollars in losses from complex hedging products if the renminbi continues to weaken, analysts and investors have warned.
Mainland companies and global investors have bought hundreds of billions of dollars worth of structured products that benefit from renminbi appreciation over the past year, and now face growing pressure after the Chinese currency fell to its lowest level since July.
Copper Set for Secnd Monthly Loss on China Concern, Yuan
BREAKING Russian Admiralty Announces War with Ukraine for Crimea – Crimean Airspace Closed, All Communications Cut! US Navy Status Page DOWN!! Capital Controls In Place!!
Read more at http://investmentwatchblog.com/breaking-russian-admiralty-announces-war-with-ukraine-for-crimea-crimean-airspace-closed-all-communications-cut-us-navy-status-page-down/#cfTFIA1DrcGJtOom.99
UKRAINE: 1994 treaty could pull U.S. into war with Russia if Putin’s troops intervene in Ukraine!!!
- The agreement sees signatories promise to protect Ukraine’s borders
- It was signed by Bill Clinton, John Major, Boris Yeltsin and Leonid Kuchma in 1994
- Ukrainian parliament has now reached out directly to all the countries who signed the treaty
- Putin currently has 150,000 troops on Ukraine’s borders and it is reported some have crossed into the country
- President Obama says he is ‘deeply concerned’ by the news
- The US and Britain have both made ‘crisis calls’ to President Putin to warn him to respect territorial boundaries
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2570335/Former-British-Ambassador-Moscow-warns-Russia-invaded-Ukraine-difficult-avoid-going-war.html#ixzz2ugvy8lVJ
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12 Signs That Russia Is Ready To Fight A War Over Crimea
#1 More Russian military vehicles continue to pour into Crimea. Just check out this video.
#2 Russian military vehicles have been photographed in the main square of Sevastopol.
#3 Russian military jets near the border with Ukraine have been put on combat alert.
#4 Russia has ordered “surprise military exercises” along the Ukrainian border.
#5 In connection with those “exercises”, it is being reported that Russia has deployed 150,000 troops along the border with Ukraine.
#6 Russia already has approximately 26,000 troops stationed at their naval base in Sevastopol.
#7 Russian ships carrying additional soldiers have been spotted off the coast of Crimea…
Russia’s large landing ship Nikolai Filchenkov has arrived near the Russia Black Sea Fleet’s base at Sevastopol, which Russia has leased from Ukraine since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.
The ship is reported to be carrying as many as 200 soldiers and has joined four additional ships carrying an unknown amount of Special Forces troops. Flot.com also reported over the weekend that personnel from the 45th Airborne Special Forces unit and additional divisions had been airlifted into Anapa, a city on Russia’s Black Sea coastline.
Layoff / Business Closing List: