Polar Vortex Collapse, Arctic Freeze Imminent
By Andrew at 9:24 AM The model forecasts above both show big high pressure centers interrupting the polar vortex and splitting it into two pieces. Such a split exemplifies the traditional weakening of the polar vortex. When that polar vortex is weakened, the cold air locked up in said polar vortex flows south, possibly into North America, maybe into the US. This is a very good sign coming from the models at this point in time to go along with the stratospheric observations.
Continuing with watching the models, we turn to a charted forecast of the ECMWF model. I want you to look at the bottom image, called the EP Flux. In short, the EP flux shows the direction and strength (shown by length of arrow) that air moves into the stratosphere. In events where warm air enters the stratosphere, long, extended arrows are commonly seen. The forecast into the days before New Year’s Day show a batch of extended arrow motions, suggesting a large motion of warming may be incoming into the stratosphere. This enhanced EP Flux would theoretically enhance warming potentials in the Arctic, thus further weakening the Polar Vortex. I find it likely that the aforementioned 50mb wave over East Asia would be to blame for this rise in EP Flux values….
Mensagens: 4,166 There for the first 8-10 days of January the models are in agreement with an episode of disintegration of the polar vortex, inducing an AO – it is possible that in January, especially after the first week, one month is very active and variable, with several episodes of various types of weather.
As historical Asian cold-vortex pushed east, parts of Siberia will test -70°F in 5-days.
Here is what I have gathered:
-Current stratospheric temperatures are at average values.
-A strong warming event looks to occur at the end of December.
-Very elevated EP Flux forecasts enhance such a warming potential.
-The polar vortex will become displaced as a response.
-High pressure forms over the Arctic, further messing up the polar vortex.
-AAM QBO values are already turning positive, increasing the potential for the permanent warming event to switch winter to spring later on in 2013.
All of the factors above combined, severe damage looks to be done to the polar vortex. I can envision a partial collapse of the vortex occurring, which would only lead to enhanced cold outbreaks in the United States. I am not confident on this collapse occurring, but if there is a best time for such a collapse to happen, it could be coming up at the end of this year.
Keep a sharp eye out for prolonged cold weather if these forecasts by the ECMWF and GFS verify.
Changes to Polar Vortex affect mile-deep ocean circulation patterns
Sept. 23, 2012 – A University of Utah study suggests something amazing: Periodic changes in winds 15 to 30 miles high in the stratosphere influence the seas by striking a vulnerable “Achilles heel” in the North Atlantic and changing mile-deep ocean circulation patterns, which in turn affect Earth’s climate.
A Vulnerable Soft Spot in the North Atlantic
“The North Atlantic is particularly important for global ocean circulation, and therefore for climate worldwide,” Reichler says. “In a region south of Greenland, which is called the downwelling region, water can get cold and salty enough – and thus dense enough – so the water starts sinking.”
It is Earth’s most important region of seawater downwelling, he adds. That sinking of cold, salty water “drives the three-dimensional oceanic conveyor belt circulation. What happens in the Atlantic also affects the other oceans.”
Reichler continues: “This area where downwelling occurs is quite susceptible to cooling or warming from the troposphere. If the water is close to becoming heavy enough to sink, then even small additional amounts of heating or cooling from the atmosphere may be imported to the ocean and either trigger downwelling events or delay them.”
Because of that sensitivity, Reichler calls the sea south of Greenland “the Achilles heel of the North Atlantic.”
The oil disaster weakened the loop current and in turn
weakened the gulf stream, this polar vortex collapse
could be the straw that breaks the camels back, in other
words completely stop the gulf stream……..
The beginning of the new Ice Age
The long-term trends point to the interesting possibility of a collapse of the polar vortex, perhaps in a very “explosive”.
by Bas den Hond
SAN FRANCISCO: Slight changes in the northern ‘polar vortex’ affects everything from weather systems to ocean currents, atmospheric scientists said.
Findings presented at the meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco showed that changes in the northern ‘polar vortex’ – a giant air circulation that emerges each winter in the stratosphere over the North Pole – can influence everything from weather systems and the ocean surface to the ‘thermohaline circulation’ – the large-scale ocean circulations driven by the temperature and saltiness of the water.
Winter 1985 Arctic outbreak
The Arctic air mass started moving into the United States on the evening of January 19 and the morning of January 20
read the link for more info on that arctic outbreak