Potential for a derecho as severe thunderstorms roll across the country:
Complexes of strong, drenching and locally severe thunderstorms will reach from parts of South Dakota and Nebraska to Illinois, Ohio, western Pennsylvania and the Virginias during the middle of this week.
Part of this area could be hit by an intense thunderstorm complex, known as a derecho.
The pattern of thunderstorm complexes has the potential to bring localized incidents of flash flooding, damaging wind gusts, hail and frequent lightning strikes along a 1,000-mile swath spanning Tuesday, Wednesday and perhaps Thursday.
At least 1 in 4 Americans in a significant threat of #severe t-storms Wed & Thu, including #Chicago and #Philly.
Winds hit 61 mph in Custer, NE, as a cluster of thunderstorms move across the region. Radar:
D.C. area forecast: Dry break today before storminess returns late Wednesday
Some flooding concerns remain for parts of New England as storms continue to move offshore
Meaning of Derecho for those who are wondering:
AS THE POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDWEST…EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON…WITHIN AN
AIRMASS ACQUIRING MODERATE INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. THE GFS AND NAM DIFFER WITH SURFACE FRONTAL EVOLUTION/LOW
POSITION ACROSS THIS AREA…SO DETAILS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE…BUT IN GENERAL A RELATIVELY BROAD ZONE OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT GIVEN MODERATE WLY WINDS
WITHIN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE ACROSS THIS REGION. ONCE
DETAILS BECOME A BIT MORE CLEAR…MORE SUBSTANTIAL WIND THREAT MAY
BECOME EVIDENT ACROSS PARTS OF THIS AREA…WHICH WOULD WARRANT
INCREASED PROBABILITIES IN LATER FORECASTS.
‘Ring of Fire’ Pattern Ramps Up Severe Weather Threat
By Andrew at 3:58 PM
The upcoming weather pattern will signal the start of summer with the Ring of Fire pattern evolving over the Plains, leading to increased chances of severe weather over parts of the nation.
Over the next 10 or more days, we should see development of high pressure over the Plains, leading to that high pressure system settling in over the region and permitting the development of the Ring of Fire. In the Ring of Fire pattern, high pressure fills much of the Plains and sits there for a prolonged period. In response, multiple mesoscale convective systems (MCS’s) will form on the edge of this high pressure system (usually the north and east sides of the ridge). It is these MCS’s that put the ‘fire’ in the Ring of Fire. Short range models already have over three MCS’s hitting Iowa and Illinois in the next 84 hours, which could lead to over 2 inches of rain in some spots.
The Ring of Fire pattern is considered one of the better patterns for severe weather. It’s not a convective system every few days- we’re talking instances of possibly more than once MCS each day. No guarantees on if that will happen this time around, but the potential is certainly there.