Prediction Wall for 2009-2012
Prediction wall for 2009-2012 real estate, stocks market, interest rate, debts, inflation/deflation, derivatives, bonds, taxation, and banks…
If you want to add more on this wall please email to: admin@investmentwatchblog.com
The Second Leg Down of This Great Recession Could Be Worse Than 1930s.
Frankly, I believe in math. Negative earnings and double digit PE ratios tell me that this market is overvalued and economy is getting worse. Dow 4500 or lower isn’t impossible!!!
Hikes in interest rate expected soon: Moody’s
“Central banks in India, China and South Korea are closely monitoring the emerging inflationary pressures on their economies and hikes in interest rates could be expected across the Asia-Pacific region after Australia raised key interest rates, says Moody’s economy.com.”
Dow Will Fall to 6,300 by Year End: Portfolio Manager
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With the prospect of higher unemployment hanging over the markets, some experts expect a correction. So are they right? Michael Cuggino, president and portfolio manager at Permanent Portfolio Funds, and John Lekas, CEO and portfolio manager at Leader Capital, shared their insights.
“I think we go below the double dip,” Lekas told CNBC. “By year-end, we drop below 6,300 on the Dow and by 2011, we’re at 4,200.”
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NY Fed’s Dudley sees low rates for long time
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — An anemic recovery will keep jobless rates high and inflation low and as a result, monetary policy will likely remain accommodative for a long time, said William Dudley, the president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank on Monday. The recovery is likely to turn out to be moderate by historical standards, Dudley said in remarks at the Fordham Corporate Law Center.
Barclays’ Michelle Meyer: You Idiots Are About To Miss The Recovery!
Star economic analyst Michelle Meyer warns that those of us looking at today’s miserable jobs numbers or focusing on the economic distortions from Cash for Clunkers are going to miss the recovery.
From CNBC:
Stock market may collapse again, TCW’s Gundlach says
The benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 index is “extremely unlikely” to climb above 1,100, before collapsing again, he said during a conference call.
“You’ve made 90% of the money you’re gonna make in this rally,” Gundlach said, advising investors to sell on strength when the S&P 500 is above 1,000.
The S&P 500 closed at 1,033 Wednesday, leaving it up more than 50% since early March.
Barton Biggs: S&P Will Soar Another 20% This Year
” Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) — The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may climb to 1,250 points by year-end to reflect the recovery in credit markets, investor Barton Biggs said.
The U.S. benchmark index may climb 20 percent from yesterday’s close of 1,044.14 by year-end, Biggs, 76, who runs New York-based hedge fund Traxis Partners LP, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. He also predicted that the index will jump to 1,350 next year.
The S&P 500 has rallied 54 percent from a 12-year low on March 9 amid signs the recession is easing as companies from Johnson & Johnson to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. posted earnings that beat analysts’ estimates…. ”
US Unemployment May Hit 15% in 2010: Strategist
“”We expect the (unemployment) numbers to increase… we believe that going into the fourth quarter we are going to see increased unemployment and I also think that in 2010 we are going to see somewhere between 12 to 15 percent in the US,” Harajchi told “Worldwide Exchange.”
Liquidity will start being withdrawn from financial markets, making things more difficult, he added.”
“1,000 Banks to Fail In Next Two Years: Bank CEO” By: Forked Tongue
“The US banking system will lose some 1,000 institutions over the next two years, said John Kanas, whose private equity firm bought BankUnited of Florida in May.”
Senator: FDIC’s Bair says 500 Banks Could Fail
“The banking industry is bracing for continued losses from consumer loans, considering the rising unemployment rate, and an expected wave of commercial real-estate losses. At a Senate Banking Committee hearing in Washington on Thursday, Sen. Jim Bunning, R-Ky., related a comment to him by Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair that another 500 banks could fail “unless something dramatic happens.””
Will interest rates go up considerably in 2009?
All the Fed can do to help the market is lowering the rate now. The recovery hasn’t even start yet, the interest rates will sit just like that (1% or lower) through out the year of 2009. You can realize it from the worsen economic data, especially the job market and housing stats.
Ben S. Bernanke said the recession is unlikely in the middle of 2008. Now it’s worst recession in decades. The Fed’s credibility is so questionable. Fed try to keep up people’s confidence for the economy with LIES. Now all the fears, panic, anxiety around flowing around the market, which makes the situation worse, the U.S debt is another issue for people to worry about. Hiking rate is just a idea is far too early care about.
Celente Predicts Revolution, Food Riots, Tax Rebellions By 2012
Trend forecaster, renowned for being accurate in the past, says that America will cease to be a developed nation within 4 years, crisis will be “worse than the great depression”
Paul Joseph Watson
Prison Planet.com
Thursday, November 13, 2008
The man who predicted the 1987 stock market crash and the fall of the Soviet Union is now forecasting revolution in America, food riots and tax rebellions - all within four years, while cautioning that putting food on the table will be a more pressing concern than buying Christmas gifts by 2012.
Gerald Celente, the CEO of Trends Research Institute, is renowned for his accuracy in predicting future world and economic events, which will send a chill down your spine considering what he told Fox News this week.
“The Fed’s FOMC announcement came out…
We got exactly what I expected, a kind of wishy-washy, “hedging our bets” statement from the Fed. You have to remember that Bernanke was Greenspan’s right hand man for much of the bubble days of the ‘90s and early ‘00s, so the guy is an expert at walking both sides of the line when it comes to policy and public statements.
For instance, the Fed announced it would keep interest rates between 0% and 0.25% for an “extended period.” No surprise there. As I’ve noted previously, 80%+ of the $200+ trillion in derivatives sitting on US commercial banks’ balance sheets are related to interest rates.
For the Fed to hint at raising rates (let alone raise them) would kick off a systemic implosion that would wipe out the very guys the Fed has been bailing out. Suffice to say the Fed won’t be raising interest rates now or anytime too soon (within the next 3-5 years, unless inflation destroys the dollar).”
Ten Reasons for an Imminent Stock Market Crash
“1. Insider Selling: An Oversupply of paper
Insiders have been quick to recognize that the market is hungry for paper. Thus, they are selling shares, and issuing debt and/or equity at an alarming rate. Investment bankers, who were very recently idle, now have a backlog of paper ready to go to market which will eventually flood the market and offset the fragile balance of supply and demand.
Why are they doing this? They are cashing out while they can. Nobody understands a business better than its insiders. Irrespective of what the Wall Street “paper pushers” say, if this is the next bull market, insiders would be buying shares, not selling.”
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Banking Sector: Worst Is Yet to Come
“For those that believe mark to market rules are useless (I know they make it hard to goose your share price in a deflationary market, see “Charting the Truth”), I bring you the collapse of a bank last week that wasn’t even on the FDIC’s troubled bank list. To add misty eyes to misery, the mis-marking of the banks assets will cost the FDIC nearly a billion dollars. That’s a lot for a bank that wasn’t even on the watch list. If the banks were forced to carry assets at market value, REAL market value, these little surprises will not be allowed to sneak up. Investors, regulators, bloggers, etc. will be able to see them coming a mile away - or at least they should. Alas, I am able to see them anyway. Is it because I am hyper-intelligent, possessive of meta-human powers, or employ an army of elfin dwarves to hide in the boardroom duct vents to eavesdrop on the board meetings? No, it’s none of those. Its because I PAY ATTENTION, and don’t have any conflicts of interests and axes to grind that color my observations and analysis.”
The Federal Reserves inner workings are so arcane that very few fully understand them. Often times many view them as smug and complacent, indifferent to the problems of reckless monetary injections. Reinforced by cavalier attitudes, the Fed’s asinine policy of rigging the money supply and short-term interest rates is going to backfire very shortly. This entire bailout’s galore orgy fest has gone horribly wrong and frankly, many are getting tired of it. This has been the most radical intervention in private business in the history of mankind. Why should those of us who have put money aside for a rainy day, drive 10 year old cars, pay down credit cards in full each month have to bailout wall street and the auto industry? Why should we have to subsidize $8,000 for “first time” home buyers? Why should the life long savers be punished and have to pick up the slack for delinquent over-indulging @#$%&!? When will the madness end? Over time, this recession has effectively destroyed the notion of job security and the dignity of an honest days work. Counterproductive measures by big government and our own acquiescence all encourage wasteful monopolistic accusations & mergers.
Stumble It!
