QUAKE WATCH: NJ & NYC Area. Small Quake Indicates Instability From Sandy Passage. Nor’easter This Week Could Trigger Larger Quake
Sudden and large snow load could also factor in triggering a quake
Latest NAM has it at 976mb
Got a small quake 5 hrs ago.
5 km deep.
Was felt in a number of towns in New Jersey.
IMHO, this was caused by the rebounding of the NAM plate from Sandy’s pressure drop.
Region is now unstable.
Nor’easter due mid-week will cause a sudden pressure drop in the area again and could set off a big quake within the next two weeks.
RINGWOOD, N.J. (AP) — Some residents in northern New Jersey awoke to a small earthquake early Monday.
The temblor, with a magnitude of 2.0, struck at 1:19 a.m. and was centered in Ringwood, a community that’s still dealing with downed trees and power outages from Sandy.
Over 100 deaths from Sandy
06Z GFS shows it making a hook into LI, NYC, & NJ.
Was also on the 00Z run
Could get 10 to 12″ Snow Hudson Valley and north Jersey
TRENTON, N.J. (AP) — Forecasters are tracking another coastal storm that threatens cleanup and recovery efforts in New York and New Jersey after the devastation of Superstorm Sandy.
The National Weather Service says the nor’easter could hit the region on Wednesday into Thursday.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
648 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL FEATURES…AND NOW SFC
LOW TRACK…WITH NOTICEABLE CLUSTERING OCCURRING WITH LOW TRACK AS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS.
NAM/UKMET AND SREF FURTHER EAST…WITH GFS/ECMWF/GGEM TO THE WEST.
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING…STRENGTH AND EXACT
TRACK BEYOND THIS TIME WHICH OBVIOUSLY WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE
SEVERITY OF CERTAIN IMPACTS FROM THE STORM…COASTAL FLOODING AND
BEACH EROSION FOR EXAMPLE. SEE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION FOR
UPPER TROUGH DIGS WELL TO THE SOUTH. CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AS A RESULT AND TRACK ACROSS FLORIDA. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL QUICKLY TRAVERSE
THROUGH THE FAST NW STEERING FLOW MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF ITS 110+ KT H25 UPPER JET BEING INJECTED INTO THE LOW
OFF THE SE COAST. THIS WILL AID IN RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES
PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH WED AND EVENTUALLY TURNING NE-E
AND OUT TO SEA THU/FRI. THE BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM WOULD LEAD TO A
SLOWER SOLUTION…THUS DISCOUNTING NAM. GFS TRENDED TOWARD
PREVIOUSLY SLOWER ECMWF.
A COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TO START WITH HIGH PRES RETREATING
TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER…MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. THEREFORE…DO NOT FORESEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT THE START DUE TO THE LATER ONSET.
BOTTOM LINE…HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OCCURRING
SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER…IT IS STILL HARD
TO PINPOINT EXACT FORECAST DETAILS AT THIS TIME DUE TO
TIMING/POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES…BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR A
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH/STRONG WIND EVENT.
STRONG…GUSTY WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
RANGING BETWEEN 20-35 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 45 TO 60 MPH IS A
DEFINITE POSSIBILITY. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE COAST AND IN
Nor’Easter will hit Sandy recovery zones hard, bring inland snow