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RED ALERT Invest 95L: Possible Hurricane in Gulf of Mexico Next Week.


Looks like models have it moving into the Caribbean and could spin up in the GOM.

CMC has a Florida landfall.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2013070612&field=850mb%20Vorticity&hour=Animation

Stay tuned for updates.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?…ssmi

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/overview_atl/atl_overview.gif

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 25 MPH. ALTHOUGH
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION…THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION
AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM…AND IT HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE…40 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

 

NWS & NHC have is forecast as a tropical cyclone 72 hrs out, south of Puerto Rico.

Right about the right position to track it thru the Caribbean, thru the Yucatan Channel and straight into the GOM.

Stay tuned.

http://img543.imageshack.us/img543/9964/7x5j.jpg

RED ALERT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/overview_atl/atl_overview.gif

000
ABNT20 KNHC 071720
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 25 MPH. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION…
AND RECENT SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION MAY BE FORMING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE…AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM AT ANY TIME…WHICH WOULD
REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE…60 PERCENT…OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT%20shtml/071720_MIATWOAT.shtml

Hurricane Hunters currently scheduled to fly out tomorrow.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SUN 07 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z JULY 2013
TCPOD NUMBER…..13-037

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR WINDWARD ISLANDS)
FLIGHT ONE — TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO — TEAL 71
A. 08/2100Z A. 09/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 08/1815Z C. 09/1030Z
D. 12.5N 54.7W D. 14.0N 60.8W
E. 08/2030Z TO 09/0030Z E. 09/1130Z TO 09/1800Z
F. RESOURCES PERMITTING

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES WHILE
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

Latest GEM run has a Charleston landfall

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BOkkcgPCMAAtSuJ.png:large

Lots of action going be coming off Africa.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/avn-l.jpg

 

DB

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