The headline says -2.6%, but that’s the median. The actual 2019 economic predictive modeling for Mexico is up to a 4% contraction if the U.S. cancels NAFTA. The next round of NAFTA negotiations is scheduled for November 17th.
Additionally, these models are based on current trade economics and do not factor in the ramifications of Mexico joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership; and signing up to manufacturing sector agreements with Asian nations who can easily undercut even the low wage rates in Mexico based on average wealth.
The predictive models are run by various analysts paid by multinational business interests (corporations) to give advanced forecasting. The results of the forecasts are used by multinational financial systems to determine the inherent value of future investment within Mexico.