Silver’s 3-wave A-B-C correction is believed to be complete, with the savage A and C waves serving to both flush out and wipe out Large and Small Specs and transfer their assets to Big Money interests. Like gold its suspected bear Pennant of a week ago now looks more like a completing base pattern, and also like gold it has risen to arrive at an important resistance level which is centered on $33. On its year-to-date chart we can see how this pattern is evolving and how the weak volume on the creeping advance of the past week suggests that it is not yet ready to overcome this resistance and may back and fill further, with a good chance of it dropping back towards support in the $29 – $30 area. Last week we had thought it would drop back further but now this is considered less likely. However, any such short-term retreat will be viewed as an opportunity to add to positions, as overall the outlook is now very positive, both fundamentally and technically.
The COT charts for silver remain exceptionally bullish. After dropping to a record low, Commercial short positions rose just slightly last week on silver’s creeping advance towards the resistance.
In conclusion silver looks set to break down short-term and drop as the dollar stages a recovery rally, but the expected drop should be nowhere near as severe as the September plunge, and it will provide a final opportunity to load up with silver and Precious Metal investments generally ahead of the major rally that the COTs are presaging.